Dawn Approach scored in the 2000 Guineas.
Simon Rowlands analyses the sectionals from 2000 Guineas day at Newmarket...
It does not need me to tell you that an unbeaten five-length winner of the 2000 Guineas is a good horse. That is what Dawn Approach has achieved, and it was impossible not to be impressed by his authoritative victory on Saturday.
That said, when a horse records a performance like this it is as well to try to determine whether it is every bit as good as it looked. In this respect, there may be a glimmer of hope for those looking to take on the Godolphin star in the future.
What the clock tells us is that Dawn Approach's overall time was modest for a horse of his standing, given a couple of the times recorded elsewhere on the card under what were quick conditions. What sectionals - provided by TurfTrax as part of the QIPCO British Champion Series - tell us is that the Guineas was run at a notably strong pace and that Dawn Approach ran his race more efficiently, compared to his overall time, than did any of his rivals.
Dawn Approach was consistently 0.56s or 0.57s off the leader until after halfway, and got involved only thereafter, leading 2f out and storming clear. Only, it wasn't "storming" clear compared to how other horses have finished the Guineas, just compared to those up against him on the day that were understandably flagging to varying degrees.
Dawn Approach's final 1f of 13.21s was slower than those for the other winners listed above, even Camelot (13.09s) on much softer ground 12 months before. It was also slower than every horse in the (steadily-run) mile handicap that concluded Saturday's card. This is testament to just what a strong pace there was in this year's Guineas.
If such a performance had occurred in an ordinary handicap, you might suggest that the winner was clearly best but that a few of his rivals could have finished a bit closer had they run more efficiently.
The chief sufferer ended up being Toronado, who ran the final 1f markedly slower than any other horse in the first eight and possibly went wrong. Toronado's sectionals in previous races suggested he was a high-class performer, but none of those races unfolded in the manner that this one did.
In summary, Dawn Approach is not only good but had the circumstances which enabled him to show that off to excellent effect. That may not always be the case.
The other races at Newmarket on Saturday were a mixed bag of truly-run and falsely-run events. Sole Power and Secretinthepark both ran their races most efficiently, coming from a bit off a strong pace to lead late on. The former recorded a particularly good time.
Boonga Roogeta went quickly enough in front in the opener, but none of her rivals made much headway and the result is probably best accepted. Windhoek and Glean won messy races but in a style that suggests they were deserving winners even so. The Jockey Club Stakes won by Universal was run at a crawl and resulted in a remarkably fast finish (and a remarkably slow overall time): it looks form to treat with caution, with the winner unlikely to get things his way so much next time.
There were, in short, not many eyecatchers on the card outside the obvious. But one worth taking a chance with is Bapak Sayang (80 sectional rating), fifth behind Secretinthepark in the 3-y-o handicap. He went faster than ideal but stayed in front until after 2f out and still beat twice as many as beat him. A race at 5f or 6f could come his way before long, especially if he can lead without going quite this quickly.
To Follow: Bapak Sayang
To Oppose: Universal
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