Channel 4 Racing: George Vancouver the value bet for the 2,000 Guineas

George Vancouver runs in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket

In his latest weekly column which focuses on big value bets across the weekend's racing, Tony Calvin turns his attention to the 2,000 Guineas...

Anyone who has ever interviewed a sportsman knows that, at times, it involves a certain amount of "reading between the lines."

And, on occasions for the writer, "listening between the sentences."

He won't thank me for saying this, but I got the distinct impression when speaking to Ryan Moore before he boarded his plane to Kentucky on Thursday evening - funnily enough to ride Lines Of Battle at Churchill Downs - this was one such time.

Now, I know jockeys form attachments and are loyal to horses. Especially ones that have trousered them a Group 1 race and a big payday. But I reckon if Moore had to choose any horse to ride in the 2,000 Guineas outside of Dawn Approach then I genuinely think he would plump for George Vancouver.

And I can see why. 

I can't, though, see why the horse is trading at 24 on Betfair for the 2,000 Guineas at 15:50 at Newmarket.

Yes, I know he has a fair bit to find with the front two in the market form-wise. But not that much. 

No, the main reason why he is trading at such a big price is that, on jockey bookings, he is seemingly Aidan O'Brien's third string. I'm not having that though.

Go back and have a look at the way how well George Vancouver travelled and ran on ground far softer than he liked in the Dewhurst, and how convincing his win in the Breeders Cup Turf Juvenile was. 

To my mind, he should be trading as the third favourite here and he rates a decent win and place bet at the prices. Conditions promise to be ideal for him here.

He does travel well throughout his races, so I would recommend covering your win stake with an in-running lay at around the 4 mark in the win market.

I think connections of Memory Cloth may just have had the 14:05 at Newmarket on their minds for a while. The problem is that the ground promises to be too fast for him, as all his best form comes with cut in the ground.

But I still think he could still be worth chancing. You never know, the clerk of the course may over-water tonight....

The case for Memory Cloth is simple. He was second in this race last year on good to soft ground, was rated 8lb higher than this after winning at Newcastle last June, and shaped as if a return to form was imminent at Newbury last time.

The ground is a big concern, but I can't let him go unbacked here, albeit to smaller stakes than it would have been had there been ease in the ground.

The Palace House Stakes at 14:35, at Newmarket looks a pretty strong Group 3, with the likes of Sole Power and Spirit Quartz in the field.

But the sprint division has been crying out for a new kid on the block for years, and in Heeraat we may just have a contender for the big stage.

He posted an excellent time figure when winning a 5f Newbury handicap off a mark of 101 on his reappearance, and that form doesn't actually give him too much to find against these. He is equally effective on fast ground and could just continue the excellent recent form of William Haggas.

Recommended Bet

Back George Vancouver in the 15:50 at Newmarket at 24.023/1