The Punters De-Brief: Gutsy Grace gets the job done

Branden Grace after win number four on the European Tour
It's been a decent week for our man, with in-running pick Branden Grace obliging in Scotland. Things didn't go so well across the pond though and there are lessons to learn...
We very nearly had two wire-to wire winners this week with both first round leaders going on to win. Ryan Moore, winner of the JT Shriners Open, was headed after round two but he only trailed by a stroke and was back tied for the lead after round three, whilst Branden Grace led after every round of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. That was Grace's fourth win of the season and that's the most victories by a rookie on the European Tour.
My Bets
Given that I'd backed Grace in every single links event throughout the summer, I'm slightly miffed I wasn't on from the get-go at the Dunhill. Mercifully, he was very much in my thoughts though and by the time he'd played just five holes on Thursday I'd got him nicely onside.
He entered yesterday's final round with a four stroke lead, which was extended to five after he'd birdied the 1st, and I assumed a nice stress-free afternoon lay ahead but that was far from the case. Grace traded below 1.21/5 when he found the par 5 5th green and I toyed with laying some of my wager back to give myself a completely relaxed afternoon but I didn't bother. He then three-putted the 5th for par, bogeyed the 7th, completely lost his exquisite putting touch and all of a sudden I was sweating and reminiscing...
My mind went racing back seven years to Kennie Ferrie's ugly collapse in the same event. I was onboard him in-running at a fancy price and he too had led by five and traded at silly odds-on before wilting badly, letting in a smiling Colin Montgomerie. For around an hour yesterday I was in a foul mood and I was so cross with myself. Had I not learnt from my experiences? Why was I so greedy? And look who was seemingly going to beat Grace, only Thorbjorn Olesen! One of just two players I'd backed on Monday at 65.064/1 before changing my mind and laying back. Suffice to say it's a good job I don't have a cat!
Olesen actually drew level with Grace and went favourite, at just 2.1011/10, when the South African made his second bogey of the day but Grace is made of very stern stuff. He hadn't really done much wrong and although I was in a flap, he wasn't and I still quite fancied him to get it done. He didn't disappoint. Birdie putts from in excess of ten feet dropped on the next three holes and after that the result was never in doubt.
Having won nicely at the Dunhill, as detailed in the In-Play Blog yesterday, I was in two minds what to do with the JT Shriners Open. With hindsight, I should have just given it up as a bad job but when Ryan Moore went two clear after just four holes I couldn't resist laying him at 1.664/6.
In my defence, he traded at nearly 3.02/1 soon after and at one point just one stroke separated four players, so it wasn't such a silly thing to do. He's not a player to trust in-contention and I felt he was far too short all week long. Where I went wrong was not laying anyone else...
Jason Day came out of the blocks at a rate of knots and incredibly took just 28 strokes to play his first nine holes. With talk of a 59 or even better, with the easier holes still to come, he traded at just 3.1511/5 when he gave himself a golden opportunity to tie the lead on the 10th but the fizz went out of his performance the moment his birdie attempt there slipped by and in no time at all the event developed into a two-man race between Moore and Brendon de Jonge.
If I'd have layed Moore substantially I'd have gotten out by laying de Jonge, who hit a low of 1.84/5 at one stage, but as all I was doing was making a poor book slightly worse I just let it roll. Vegas resident, Moore was utterly professional and his greater knowledge of the greens meant he just edged out the pedestrian de Jonge, who himself did little wrong - though he didn't exactly go for it, leaving birdie opportunities short on both the 16th and unforgivably, on the 18th.
Trading lessons learnt this week?
Two things I should learn from yesterday are, when there are still more than ten holes to play on Sunday and your pick hits less than 1.21/5, lay some off! Who needs the stress? And also, look at the opposition much more closely before dogmatically laying someone. I almost forced myself to lay Moore as my instinct was telling me there wasn't really anyone up there to worry him out of it. I should have followed my instinct.
What have we learnt for next year?
Playing Carnoustie on day one this year was a massive handicap, nobody that played there on Thursday was within ten of the lead or inside the top-27 on the leaderboard at halfway. I'm pretty sure this was down to the benign weather as those that played the easier courses were able to put plenty of daylight between themselves and those that played the trickier Carnoustie. For future reference, here are the hole averages for each course through three rounds.
St Andrews 67.88
Kingsbarns 68.54
Carnoustie 70.71
Driving accuracy is just about irrelevant in this event, Grace ranked 112th for Driving Accuracy on the week. Putting was the key stat, with the first four home all ranking inside the top-10 for putting.
The weather is the most important thing to consider. This year, Saturday was forecast to be the worse day but the forecast changed by the time they started the event and with almost identical conditions all week, those that started at the easier courses had a huge advantage. Had the original forecast been correct, Grace may not have won as he'd have been playing Carnoustie in the worst of the weather.
As for the Shriners Open, keep stakes low would be my advice. Ryan Moore bucked a few trends this year, as he was both a former winner and the tournament favourite - most years a maiden outsider takes the title. But maybe it was all down to the 'Nappy Factor' - Moore and his wife are expecting their first child at the end of the month and he won't be the last player to win on or around the time of the birth of a child. And finally, is local knowledge starting to count quite heavily? Both Moore and last year's winner, Kevin Na, are Vegas residents.
We've three tournaments to enjoy this week. The brand new Turkish Airlines World Golf Final starts tomorrow and I'll be back later with a preview for that one and we've also got the Portugal Masters and the Frys.com Open starting on Thursday.