Prix de lArc de Triomphe: Timeform runner-by-runner guide

Longchamp will play host to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
Timeform offer a runner-by-runner guide to one of the world's premier middle-distance races, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe...
Sea Moon progressed rapidly in his first four starts to easily land the Great Voltigeur at York before a troubled run arguably cost him success in the St Leger. Concluded 2011 with an excellent effort when second to St Nicholas Abbey in the Breeders' Cup Turf and has got back to winning ways this season, landing his first two races including the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. Well backed but not seen to best effect in the King George on his subsequent start and is of interest here.
St Nicholas Abbey is a top-class performer who added to his Group 1 tally with a second successive win in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. Has run consistently well in defeat since, arguably not seen to best effect under a patient ride on two of the three occasions, and would have decent claims to at least matching his fifth-placing in this event last year.
Meandre won three times in 2011, most notably when landing the Grand Prix de Paris, before going on to run well when finishing sixth to Danedream in the Arc. Had excuses first two starts of this year before winning a brace of Group 1's and finishing second to Orfevre in the Prix Foy, but it is difficult to envisage him reversing the form with that rival here.
Mikhail Glinka landed the Group 3 Queen's Vase in 2010 when trained by Aidan O'Brien and has seemingly taken his form to another level in Dubai this year, beating Cavalryman by a length in the Group 2 Dubai City of Gold in March. Didn't need to show the same form to win at Baden-Baden on his most recent start, and is unlikely to be good enough to land this prize.
Robin Hood won a handicap at Leopardstown on his seasonal reappearance but has acted as a pacemaker on his recent starts for superior stablemates, and he seems likely to occupy a similar role here.
Orfevre is a top-class performer and winner of the Japanese Triple Crown. He didn't need to be at his best to defeat Meandre in the Prix Foy, quickening to the lead two furlongs out and having the race won from that point, but a stronger pace would have seen him to greater effect. Japanese horses have often gone well in this event, and he is very much one to note.
Aventino has won four races in Japan, with his last success coming in 2009. Made the pace for stablemate Orfevre in the Prix Foy, and the assumption is that he will do so once more.
Shareta made good progress last season to finish runner-up in this event and has returned to that sort of form on her last three starts, winning the Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille on the latter two occasions. Appears to be peaking at the right time and likely to give a good account.
Haya Landa is a smart performer who ran one of his better races when second to Aquamarine in a Group 3 at Chantilly earlier this year. Not disgraced when seventh to Dandino at Kempton last time, but the evidence suggests he is flying too high here.
Solemia has enjoyed a fruitful 2012, winning a listed race at Longchamp and the Group 2 Prix Corrida at Saint-Cloud, beating a below-par Shareta by a nose. Produced a career-best when third to that rival in the Prix Vermeille, but unlikely to be good enough here.
Bayrir boasts an impressive strike rate, having won four of his six starts including the Group 2Prix Eugene Adam and the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes. Stepped up to this trip and ran well when second to Saonois in the Prix Niel, finding himself in the worst position when things quickened in the straight and only getting on terms in the final furlong. Cannot be discounted completely, although connections appear to have a stronger candidate in Shareta.
Kesampour was successful on his first four starts, all at Saint-Cloud, including a listed event and the Group 2 Prix Greffulhe, with Saonois just over half a length behind in fourth. Beaten by that rival on the last two occasions and, although not disgraced, there is no obvious reason as to why he should reverse the form.
Camelot was unbeaten in two starts as a juvenile and has been this year's champion three-year-old, impressing with victories in the 2000 Guineas and the Epsom Derby. Soft ground seemingly prevented him reaching quite the same heights when winning the Irish Derby and was foiled in his Triple Crown attempt in the St Leger, but has to be afforded the maximum respect here.
Masterstroke has raced only six times to date, resulting in two second-places and four wins including when narrowly beating Gatewood in the Grand Prix de Deauville, making progress early in the straight and staying on strongly. Remains unexposed and is the type to improve further, with a bold showing here not ruled out.
Ernest Hemingway could hardly have been more impressive on debut, winning a weak Dundalk maiden by 10 lengths in an excellent time, and was well backed on his only subsequent start in the Dante at York. Proved to be a let down that day, finding nothing before being eased off, and whilst he's not one to write off it is difficult to see him troubling the principals here.
Saonois looked fairly exposed prior to taking his form up a notch with victory in the Prix du Jockey Club, weaving through the field to hit the front inside the final 50 yards. A three month absence proved to be no sticking point as he once again overcame trouble in running to win the Prix Niel, demonstrating a thoroughly likable attitude, and could be dangerous to write off.
Yellow And Green finished in the places on her first three starts, including when second in Group 3 Prix du Royaumont, and gained her first win in Group 2 Prix de Malleret at Saint-Cloud. Took a step forward when fourth in Prix Vermeille, left with too much to do in rear before finishing best of all and, whilst very much an outsider, it would not be the biggest surprise to see her show up well.
Great Heavens finished fifth on her only start last year but has made great strides this season, winning on each of her four appearances including the Lancashire Oaks and the Irish Oaks. Supplemented for this after same connections', and full-brother, Nathaniel was withdrawn, and she remains open to further improvement so a bold showing cannot be ruled out.
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Orfevre
2. Camelot
3. Sea Moon
Timeform Verdict: The absence of Danedream, Nathaniel and Snow Fairy is a blow to this contest, but Orfevre's top-class Japanese form marks him down as the one to beat and, for all that he couldn't display the full range of his talents in the Prix Foy, he is taken to emerge triumphant. It is impossible to discount Camelot, his Epsom Derby win still fresh in the mind, and he rates as the biggest threat, with Sea Moon and St Nicholas Abbey others to be interested in, the former marginally preferred of the pair with conditions likely to be more in his favour.
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