суббота, 20 октября 2012 г.

La Liga Preview: The Big Two are not watertight

Sergio Ramos could be disoriented by a new position on Real Madrid's left-hand side

Tobias Gourlay expects the goals to flow at both ends as Real Madrid entertain Celta Vigo and Barcelona travel to Deportivo La Coruna

Real Madrid v Celta Vigo
Saturday 17.00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Real 1.152/13 Celta 10.09/1 draw 25.024/1

Real Madrid have won 16 in a row at home to promoted sides and Celta Vigo's record of losing their first three away games of the season offers little to suggest they can buck the trend.

Jose Mourinho had a full squad to choose from for el clasico a couple of weeks ago, but a rush of injuries to his internationals has left him without any recognised full-backs. Sergio Ramos might have to fill in at left-back, which would mean changes to the rest of the defence too.

Real have conceded at home in 16/22 league games since the start of last season and, under Mourinho, in 5/7 against new boys. The result in each of Celta's three road losses so far has been 1-2 and Both Teams to Score appeals at even money.

Cristiano Ronaldo has scored ten in his last five club games. He couldn't find a way past Roy Carroll with Portugal on Tuesday, but the supporting cast is stronger in Madrid, even if Higuain and Benzema succumb to the injuries they acquired in the line of patriotic duty.

Over 3.5 Goals is eminently plausible, but the market knows it and you won't even get close to evens. Think instead about Real to score four on their own: they've done it in 13/22 at the Bernabeu and you can back Any Unquoted at 2.56/4 in the Correct Score market.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.01/1

Deportivo La Coruna v Barcelona
Saturday 21.00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Deportivo 11.010/1 Barcelona 1.341/3 draw 5.95/1

International break just finished? Now is usually the time to mention Barcelona's problems in the aftermath of such interruptions. Since the beginning of the Guardiola era - even in New York, the old boss feels like a defining figure - the Catalans are W6-D6-L0 in the backwash of Spain games.

A year ago, they were champions, but not playing like it in matches like this one. They had won everything and couldn't raise themselves for long trips to mediocre teams. In 2012, however, Opta's noticed Barca have won more away games (11) than anyone else in Europe's big five leagues.

Galicia is one of Spain's less hospitable regions - Real Madrid used to have terrible trouble taking three points off Deportivo - but the weather forecast for this weekend is good and Barca look set fair for a seventh win in eight this season.

Like Real, Barca's defence is depleted this week: Pique and Puyol are absent, which means Tito Vilanova is still without any recognised centre-backs, and Dani Alves has joined the injured list. The team has already conceded in 5/7 league games this season, including 3/3 on the road. Both Teams to Score is the recommendation here too.

After a brace in el clasico, Leo Messi's record is worth flagging up again: he's scored a brace or better in 5/11 appearances in all competitions this season and in 12/22 in La Liga. Keep an eye out for a price around 2.89/5. If there isn't one, you can always put out a request for one. No one's totally sure where to draw the line in the To Score 2 Goals or More market.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.01/1

Getafe v Levante
Sunday 11.00 BST
Getafe 1.910/11 Levante 4.84/1 draw 3.711/4

Getafe and Levante are neck and neck in the middle of the table, each gathering ten points from the first seven rounds of the season. Both have been doing their best work on home turf, which means hosts Getafe rate a bet this weekend.

Geta have won 2/3 at the Coliseum this season, beating Real Madrid and only losing to Barcelona. Levante have lost 13/17 on the road, including 3/3 this term, when they have so far scored once and conceded nine. The 4-0 defeat at Osasuna stands out as particularly egregious. With Levante's inspirational captain Sergio Ballesteros - what is it about that surname? - an injury doubt for this Sunday morning kickoff, Getafe are very nicely priced at 1.910/11.

Recommended Bet
Back Getafe @ 1.910/11

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