BMW Masters Tips: Four reasons to lay Rory in China

Rory McIlroy is clear at the top the world rankings, but is he a good thing this week?

Eleven of Europe's Ryder Cup heroes have made the trip to Shanghai for this week's Race to Dubai event, headed by world number one Rory McIlroy. Before steaming into the red-hot favourite though, Paul Krishnamurty has some words of warning...

Ultimately, the key to successful betting is about a lot more than simply backing winners. Rather, it's about evaluating the merit of each bet and whether the price concerned represents good value. Often we're presented with a bet that looks blindingly obvious and it requires great discipline to take a step back, to challenge what appear to be watertight credentials. I suspect many punters considering this week's BMW Masters are pondering the same dilemma.

At first glance, backing red-hot favourite Rory McIlroy looks a no-brainer. He's stepped up several gears in recent months and left the rest floundering, opening up a huge lead at the top of the world rankings. His last five strokeplay starts have yielded three victories in the strongest of company - an eight-shot win at the PGA, followed by two FedEx Cup play-offs. This week's line-up, though impressive, is weaker and significantly, Rory enjoys a big advantage in terms of course knowledge. Whereas very few opponents will have played Lake Malaren Golf Club, McIlroy won the Shanghai Masters at this venue last year.

Yet despite those credentials, this particular value-seeker sees absolutely no appeal in taking odds of 6.05/1 about the favourite. In fact, with all due respect to the world's leading player, I'm very much a layer, particularly in the place markets, for the following four reasons.

First, I simply don't believe any golfer should be this price in a top-class field. Before Tiger Woods took the world by storm, such was the wide-open nature of the sport, golf punters had largely settled on the idea that the favourite for any top-class event should be priced in double figures. When Tiger slipped back from his superhuman levels, the old rules seemed to apply once again. Without taking anything away from Rory's recent hot streak, it may be just that. With strength in depth on the main tours growing by the day, he is by no means certain to win more than, say, three titles per year on average. If so, punters regularly taking these sort of short odds are going to struggle.

Second, let's not underestimate this opposition. Ten of Rory's Ryder Cup team-mates are in this line-up, as are world-class South Africans Charl Schwartzel, Louis Oosthuizen and Branden Grace. This field is incomparable to the invitational line-up Rory beat here last year.

Third, given that he hasn't played since the Ryder Cup, there must be a chance McIlroy will be a little rusty. He certainly looked in need of a well-earned break at Medinah, coming straight off the back of a gruelling, high pressure FedEx Cup series.

Last but by no means least, there is a doubt that McIlroy will appreciate this week's likely conditions. According to the early weather report, fairly strong winds are forecast throughout the weekend and if so, that will be far from ideal. We've seen time and again, in the Open Championship particularly, that Rory's one glaring weakness is the lack of a wind game. Doubtless some will point to his victory at exposed Kiawah Island, but in truth the wind wasn't particularly fierce that weekend. On the second day when it really blew, Rory struggled from tee to green and looked like dropping away, but kept his chances alive with some great recoveries on the greens.

Of course, nobody is going to get rich laying 6.05/1 chances but at 2.26/5 and 1.42/5, there is plenty of low-risk mileage in laying Rory to make the top-five or top-ten.

Recommended Bets
Lay Rory McIlroy for a top-five finish @ 2.26/5
Lay Rory McIlroy for a top-ten finish @ 1.42/5