BMW Masters: Rory McIlroy will be hard to beat, says The Punter

Rory McIlroy, after his win at Lake Malaren last year

The European golf stars are out in China, chasing the big bucks in Shanghai. Steve likes the chances of favourite Rory McIlroy but who else does he fancy to win the inaugural BMW Masters and why? Read his preview here...

Tournament History and Format
This is the inaugural staging of the BMW Masters, an event co-sanctioned by the European Tour and the China Golf Association. Although this is the first official Tour event staged at the Jack Nicklaus designed Lake Malaren, Rory McIlroy picked up a cool $2 million here twelve months ago when he won a 30-man invitation only event staged called the Shanghai Masters.

The field of just 78 includes 14 players from the China Golf Association and there will be no halfway cut.

Venue
Masters Course, Lake Malaren Golf Club, Shanghai, China

Course Details
Par 72, 7,607 yards
The Jack Nicklaus designed Masters Course only opened last year. It's a very long, typical parkland track with a traditional par 72 layout - four par 5s and four par 3s. Water is in play on a number of holes and it looks fairly exposed.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Site
Course Details
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports from 5.30am on all four days.

What will it take to win the win the BMW Masters?
Given this is the inaugural staging, all we have to go on is the result of last year's Shanghai Masters and an analysis of the course profile and a mere cursory glance at both suggests length off the tee is vital.

Hunter Mahan, who had started last year's event well with a seven under-par 65, was the only player in the top-five on the final leaderboard not renowned for his length off the tee and given that the course measures over 7,600 yards, that's not really surprising.

As it only opened a year ago, the chances are the rough isn't too severe and big hitters should have a significant advantage.

Possible In-Play Angle
The first round tee times have been set and given no second round tee times have been announced and that the stellar names are out last on day one, I assume there'll be playing round two in reverse order, as is always the case for rounds three and four after the cut.

The forecast suggests that Friday will be blowy, worsening as the day wares on. If that is the case, some of the early starters from off the pace might make up a lot of ground. And/or the leaders may struggle. I must stress though, betting on the strength of weather forecasts is a tricky business and keeping an eye on the very latest forecast is essential.

Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy heads the market and it's very easy to see why. When he pitched up here twelve months ago he did so just days after slumping badly at the Grand Slam of Golf in Bermuda and given his relationship with tennis star Caroline Wozniacki was in its infancy, he felt the need to fly from Bermuda to Shanghai, via Turkey to meet her - not the ideal build-up but it mattered not. He opened up with an eight under-par 64 and although headed on the back nine on Sunday, he eventually beat Anthony Kim in a playoff.

He didn't play brilliantly when last seen out at the Turkish Airlines World Golf Final but I really wouldn't read much into that. It was no more than a glorified jolly. In addition to his success here, an obvious pointer if ever there was one, he also won the Honda Classic, played at the PGA National, a course that was extensively re-worked by Nicklaus.

Next up are English trio, Justin Rose, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood who all trade at around 12.011/1. I'm overlooking all three.

Rose won the Turkish jolly in fine style, had a fantastic Ryder Cup and prior to that finished runner-up at the Tour Championship so is arguably in the form of his life but he's priced up accordingly. Donald could well be hindered by his lack of length off the tee and Westwood's putting is always a dissuasive factor.

Selections
I've backed Rory modestly at 6.25/1 and I think that price is more than fair but I do have one nagging doubt - the weather. Picking holes in the world's best player is damn near impossible but I still have reservations about his ability to handle severely windy conditions. I shall keep my eye on the forecast and if Friday's forecast worsens much more I may well lay my wager back. If it eases or stays as it is I'll stick with him. If the wind doesn't blow ridiculously hard and he turns up in form, he'll take some beating.

Given he's already won four times on the European Tour (including the Volvo China Open at the almost identically lengthy Binhai Lake GC), Branden Grace looked over-priced at 30.029/1 and I've also stuck with Bernd Wiesberger...

The big-hitting young Austrian looked set to win his third title of the season at the Portugal Masters last time out before a lacklustre final round scuppered his chance. I backed him there at 65.064/1 and I was more than happy to go in again this week at ten points bigger.

Selections:
Rory McIlroy @ 6.25/1
Branden Grace @ 30.029/1
Bernd Wiesberger @ 75.074/1

I'll be back later today with a preview of the PGA Tour's annual trip to Malaysia for the CIMB Classic.