US Open Betting – Will Djokovic Win The US Open On His Serve?

Will Djokovic Win The US Open On His Serve?

Novak Djokovic is the favourite for US Open betting in August, but will the Serbian's title ambitions be thwarted by an inconsistent serve? We ask: will Djokovic win the US Open – or lose it – on his serve?

Djokovic 2.620* has never been credited with a lethal serve, but his consistency at the baseline has meant his rivals haven't been able to exploit the potential weakness. In his 2011 record-breaking season he fired an impressive 65% of first serves in, while this season the number has dipped to a still-impressive 64%. To put that into context, current World No. 1 Roger Federer 3.420* is only firing in 63% of his first serves in this year.

In the recent Cincinnati Masters, Djokovic was getting around 64% of his first serves in. It dropped below 60% twice, however, and both time it provided a hiccup for Djokovic. It fell to 57% for his 6-0, 7-6 defeat to Roger Federer, while his second round tie with the less-talented Andreas Seppi had a tie-breaker in the first set, which is probably related to a 58% first serve percentage.

Similarly in the Rogers Cup a week previous, his only dropped set came after serving at 55% to Tommy Haas 236.000* (6-3, 3-6, 6-3). The other matches – excluding a bout with Janko Tipsarevic 232.810* – came in at above 60% first serves.

First Serve Key to Djokovic's US Open Hopes?

<div id="quotefloat">Djokovic has only lost twice this year when he's had a better first serve percentage than his rival</div>

First serve consistency is vital to the World No. 2's game, as Djokovic has only lost twice this year when he's had a better first serve percentage than his rival. Both of those were to notoriously scrappy baseline defender Rafael Nadal, who's adept at returning even the best serves in the game.

Of course, the first serve percentage is just one aspect that can affect Djokovic's game, as it is not a perfect marker for success. After all, the Serbian crashed out of the medal places at the 2012 Olympics despite boasting a 74% first serve percentage – 10% higher than eventual Bronze medalist Juan Martin Del Potro's 13.100*.

Should Djokovic and Federer meet in the US Open final, however, the first serve percent could be a key indicator for live tennis betting. In all four meetings between the two tennis titans this year, whoever has had the best first serve percentage has gone on to victory.

Djokovic has also become more clinical with his serves this year, earning an average of 5.7 aces per match – an increase on 2011's 4.5 aces per match. It's a small improvement, however, considering the former World No. 1 is still only winning 74% of points on his first serve. That's a whole four percent lower than US Open second-favourite Federer.

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By Jack Ratcliffe

*Odds subject to change