Why Chelsea are exceeding bookmakers expectations in the EPL

Why Chelsea are exceeding bookmakers expectations in the EPL

By Michael Gales Oct 23, 2013

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The Pinnacle Sports EPL handicap table suggests Chelsea are performing above expectations, while Man City aren’t. Before they meet head-to-head at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, this article informs bettors of key statistics that may explain why that is.

Chelsea formidable at home on the handicap

Eight games into the Premier League season, Chelsea sit just two-points adrift of leaders Arsenal, despite their worst start to a Premier League season during the Roman Abramovich era.

Despite the early criticisms aimed at Jose Mourinho, Chelsea have ominously won their last two EPL games and covered the spread with Pinnacle Sports in their last four games – matched only by Southampton.

As manager of Chelsea, Mourinho has a 64-match unbeaten home record in the Premier League, and has guided his Blues to a 100% start at Stamford Bridge this season – scoring 10 and conceding two from four games.

The Blues have covered the handicap in 62.5% of their Premier League games this season and at the Bridge have covered 75%, with one push against Aston Villa.

However, the visit of preseason Premier League favourites Manchester City is considered the biggest threat to Chelsea and Jose’s unbeaten Stamford Bridge EPL record. This is reflected in the odds as Chelsea are offered at 2.030* at 0 and -0.5 – the tightest handicap they have been offered at home this season.

Have City ended their away day blues?

Despite spending 100m on new players during the summer, Man City had failed to claim an away Premier League win until they beat West Ham at Upton Park on Saturday.

On the road City have lost two, drawn one and won one – Ranking 14th on the road in the Premier League this term. They currently score an average of 1.75 goals per game, but also concede the same. The only away game this season they haven’t found the net, or conceded, was the 0-0 bore draw at the Britannia stadium against Stoke.

75% of City’s away games this season have gone over 2.5 goals, compared to Chelsea games at home which have gone over 50% of games – they have also scored in each of their last 13 EPL games at the Bridge. Pinnacle Sports are offering Over 2.5 and 3 goals at 2.040*.

City have covered the spread 50% of the time which highlights that bookmakers have valued their strength pretty well this season. With this said on the road they have covered their handicap just once.

Chelsea vs. Man City: Head-to-Head

The last ten Premier League encounters between Chelsea and Manchester City at the Stamford Bridge resulted in seven Chelsea wins, two goalless draws and one City victory.

Chelsea vs Man City: Against the spread at The Bridge

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

Result

22/03/2003

Chelsea

-1

5-0

25/10/2003

Push

-1

1-0

06/02/2005

Man City

1.5

0-0

25/03/2006

Chelsea

-1.5

2-0

27/10/2007

Chelsea

-1

6-0

15/03/2009

Man City

1.25

1-0

27/02/2010

Man City

1.25

2-4

20/03/2011

Chelsea

-0.75

2-0

12/12/2011

Chelsea

-0.25

2-1

11/25/2012

Push

0

0-0

During this period Chelsea covered the handicap in half the games, while City did in 30% and there were two pushes. However since City’s takeover, the results are different, with Chelsea and city covering twice, with one push – last year’s 0-0 draw.

There have been an average of 26 goals across the ten games – Chelsea (21), Man City (5). What this doesn’t emphasise however is that City have scored in just two, and four came in their 4-2 win at the bridge in 2009.

How much this historical data is relevant is questionable as both teams have new managers, squads and playing philosophies. The bettor should however, be aware of recent handicap form, and decide whether or not Man City have put pay to their away day blues since their win at Villa or if the Chelsea machine is undervalued at home on the handicap?

Click here to see the latest Premier League odds

*Odds subject to change

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