Are the odds stacked against the preseason favourites?
By Jack Ratcliffe Sep 3, 2013
Tweet
There’s an interesting phenomena in NFL betting. Teams picked as favourites for individual matches are more reliable than those marked as preseason favourites who often disappoint. In fact, over the last ten seasons, only one preseason favourite has gone on to win the Super Bowl.
The only team to survive the “Curse of the Super Bowl Preseason Outrights” in the last decade was the Indianapolis Colts in 2006, who had odds of 7.000, and beat the Chicago Bears 29 – 17 in Florida.
See the table below for a rundown of pre-season favourites and the eventual winners over the last 10 years:
Pre-Season Winners Over The Last 10 Years
Year
Pre-Season Favourite
Eventual Champion
2001
St. Louis Rams
New England Patriots
2002
St. Louis Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2003
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots
2004
Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots
2005
Indianapolis Colts/ Philiadelphia Eagles/ New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
2006
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts
2007
New England Patriots
New York Giants
2008
New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
2009
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
2010
Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay Packers
2011
New England Patriots
New York Giants
2012
Green Bay Packers
Baltimore Ravens
This year’s favourite is the 5.760* San Francisco 49ers, who couldn’t manage one of the greatest comebacks in Super Bowl history last season and finished just one touchdown away from lifting the Lombardi Trophy.
However, in the last sevens years, no one of odds that short has succeeded in the NFL. The table below shows you the odds for the eventual winners for the last seven years:
Pre-Season Super Bowl Odds For Eventual Champions
Super Bowl
Year
Team
Preseason Odds
XLVII
2012
Ravens
14-1
XLVI
2011
Giants
20-1
XLV
2010
Packers
16-1
XLIV
2009
Saints
20-1
XLIII
2008
Steelers
20-1
XLII
2007
Giants
30-1
This year, the following teams have odds of 20.00* or less:
Favourite-To-Under 20.000 Range
Team Name
Odds
San Francisco 49ers
5.760
Denver Broncos
6.890
Seattle Seahawks
7.390
New England Patriots
9.020
Atlanta Falcons
15.200
Green Bay Packers
15.860
Houston Texans
16.840
New Orleans
18.890
So what’s behind this inability to correctly predict a correct favourite? There are numerous possibilities, so we’ll just list a few potential ideas below:
The draft system/no relegation in NFL makes talent more fairly distributed, so it’s more difficult to accurately predict how well teams will play each season
Even a small miscalculation in skill, when extrapolated over the many games played in a season, means that a season-long prediction is difficult
The market could be shifting as bettors allow bias for their teams outweigh rational thought, backing their favourites to win rather than an objectively better team
Pressure of being favourites
Playoff system should bias the best teams
Absence/ reasons for long winning streaks
It’s also important to remember exactly what the 49ers odds imply. Odds of 5.760* imply that the probability of San Francisco actually winning the Super Bowl is 17.4%. To put that in context, the New Orleans Saints’ (at 19.000*) have an implied probability of 5.29%, so just 12.1% lower than the 49ers, despite the odds difference being quite noticeable.
This pattern suggests that preseason is the perfect time to back longer teams and fade favourites, with bets on the longer teams potentially gaining more value as the season progresses when a clearer picture emerges.
Whatever happens, however, it goes without saying that there is a lot of value to be had if you can accurately predict the winner in the preseason. Even the smallest win in the last seven years would have netted you 130 on a 10 bet.
Click here for the latest NFL odds.
*Odds subject to change
If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий