Finding an edge in the Champions League

Finding an edge in the Champions League

By Jack Ratcliffe Sep 16, 2013

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There can be a huge gulf in perceived class between the ever-present participants in the Champions League, and fringe sides that gain a place at top table of European domestic soccer. But do handicap odds consistently over-estimate this difference in class, presenting an edge to savvy bettors?

Outsiders overrated at home

The Champions League is considered the world’s elite club competition, however due to the tournaments qualification process, a number of minnows can find themselves up against the odds in the group stage.

In the last three years, only one of these small sides has beaten expectations and made it to the knockout stages – APOEL Nicosia in 2011/12. Their journey continued into the quarterfinals (where they were knocked out by Real Madrid). More surprising for bettors than APOEL’s progress, however, were their results against the spread. The Cypriot side failed to cover the handicap in just three of their ten games, covering the handicap six times and pushing once.

Such a high covering rate (60%) is unusual for the smaller sides, which (using the four smaller sides from the last three Champions League competitions) have covered an average of 43.4% of the time. Combine that number with the push rate (10.5%) and it seems there’s nothing out of the ordinary regarding minnows handicap performances in the UCL.

On the road – the minnows cover 52.6% of their matches

Separate the data into home and away form, however, and a big division appears. The 12 minnows listed above (Nordsjaelland, Montpellier, CFR Cluj x 2, BATE Borisov x2, Otelul Galati, Trabzonspor, Apoel Nicosia, Partizan, Zilina and Rubin Kazan) have covered the spread at home just 13 times in 38 outings; a rate of 34.2%.

On the road, it’s a different story – the minnows cover 52.6% of their matches, or 20 from 38. Because the perception is that these teams will be demolished away from home, the handicap tends to dramatically undervalue them. Handicap bettors should take note: these sides are performing better than expected on the road, and much, much worse than the handicap would indicate at home, covering the spread just 1/3 of the time.

This year’s Champions League boasts a slightly stronger lineup than usual, but if there were four teams that could be considered minnows, it’s Plzen, Steaua, Austria Wien and F.C. Copenhagen. Of these, Copenhagen are currently 1.893* home favourites at +1 and +1.5 for their first Champions League tie this year. Will the results go with the odds, or with the stats above?

Munich: Unpredictably good

At the other end of the spectrum, and with two Champions League finals and one trophy under their belt, it’s understandable that Bayern Munich top the Champions League outrights market and are widely considered the best team in Europe.

Despite this hyperbole, however, the German side has been traditionally underrated at home over the last three seasons.

According to historical handicap data for the last three Champions League seasons, Munchen have covered the spread in 12 of their last 18 home outings. This means the Germans have beaten their predicted outcome 66.7% of the time – very impressive for a side who are already considered the best in the world.

The statistics aren’t quite as astounding away from home, but are still favourable towards the south German side as they cover 50% of the time.

Barcelona’s bad season

Before the start of last season’s Champions League competition, most people expected Barcelona to showcase the form that seen them reach the semifinals in 2011/12.

Barcelona’s Performance Against the Spread

Year

Home Cover

Away Cover

2013

16.7%

33.3%

2012

50%

66.7%

2011

71%

50%

And in results, they did – the Spaniards managed to make it to the penultimate round of Europe’s premier club competition. However, a look at their results against the handicap show there was nowhere near the dominance expected of them (and seen in previous seasons).

The Catalan’s covered the spread at home just once in last year’s competition, compared with three times the season before, and five the season before that. Looking at the table to the left, you can see how often Barca covered the handicap (home and away) for the last three Champions Leagues.

Click here for the latest Champions League odds.

*Odds subject to change

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