Identifying how to gain an eSports betting edge in LoL

Identifying how to gain an eSports betting edge in LoL

By Montse Garcia Oct 11, 2013

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eSports betting on League of Legends live is different to pre-game. This article explores indicators – laning, team selection and strategy – that a bettor should be aware of when betting live to give themselves the opportunity to gain an edge.

Identify the differences between live & pre-game betting

Bettors should be aware of the differences between betting live and betting pre-game on League of Legends. Betting live requires a different method, and it is in the approach that will determine whether or not you are successful.

The moment picks and bans are rolling, the outcome of the game is being decided, bettors should revise their perception of each teams chances of victory, as the odds react to the action of the game.

Identifying big events that tilt the odds considerably in favour of one team, such as dominating a big team fight, taking the first inhibitor of the game or taking baron are not difficult. As a bettor you should be aware if it were simple to identify, then the odds would have reacted. So how do you find an edge? Simple, by recognising events that will affect the outcome of the match before they fully transpire.

Pre-game indicators that help live betting

As mentioned earlier the chances of a team winning can be impacted as early as the picks and bans phase. Obviously a team can cause an upset by selecting a non-standard composition that appears weak on paper, but in reality beats their opponent, but generally a bettor can identify a discrepancy at this early stage.

The moment picks and bans are rolling, the outcome of the game is being decided

By identifying weaknesses and strengths in a team line-up such as a team selecting all their comfort picks – think of Froggen’s Anivia or Imp’s Vayne – to identifying a lack of engage for a team, which could turn problematic in the later stages, or a poke heavy set-up facing a hard engage team, can give you an opportunity to gain an edge and make a profit.

Once the game begins… be aware of lane selection

Once the game begins bettors should be aware of a subtle but important factor that can have an impact at level one: lanes. Teams will attempt to get the best possible lanes for their match-ups. Once a team get their desired picks, they will favour certain match-ups than others.

Teams who get their preferred matches will therefore have an edge in the laning phase, which could prove decisive for the outcome of the game. This was clearly illustrated in the All-Star China vs Korea game 2, where both teams rotated their bot-lane in order to find the most favourable match-up for each.

The method behind this saw China prefer to avoid Vayne laning against Caitlyn and in turn look to shut down Ambition’s Kha’Zix, forcing him into a 1v2 lane.

Once the match-ups are established and the minions spawn, the attention will be on who gets the coveted first blood. There’s no denying that the extra gold it gives should incline bettors to improve the odds for the team that got it, but how much? In general, kills should be measured for their effect, more than for the bounty itself. It’s important to quickly assess all the potential scenarios that could come after the kill and one that includes taking an objective, for example the first dragon of the game, will be the next considerable change in each team’s chances.

Another key factor that to look out for in the early stages is the jungler. With his global presence, actions directly affecting him can have greater scale consequences. Things such as an early death to the enemy jungler or losing out on experience with one of his buffs being stolen will affect his ability to impact the game and create plays on the other three lanes. On the other hand, you can always expect extreme pressure from a jungler with a strong start. A jungler with an early double kill or a level advantage over the enemy jungler has a sizable potential to influence the outcome of the game, and the potential alone should be another turning point when adjusting the lines.

In every turn of the game, each team’s chances are declining or increasing, and in live-betting it important to find these key turning points before they’re painfully obvious. A strong start doesn’t guarantee that the mid and late game will echo this, so it’s important to start thinking of potential and likely outcomes, and judge the odds based on that. It’s not unheard of a team coming back from three inhibitors down, but realistically the chances of that happening are quite low.

Remember: understanding how the different pre-game indicators – laning, team selection and strategy – can affect the outcome of a game early enough can give the bettor an opportunity to gain an edge for live eSports betting.

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