5 great reasons to bet on the Bundesliga

5 great reasons to bet on the Bundesliga

By Michael Gales Aug 6, 2013

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Ahead of the new Bundesliga season on August 9th, Pinnacle Sports looks at five great reasons to bet on the Bundesliga this year. From the arrival of Guardiola to how teams perform against the spread, read on for in-depth Bundesliga betting information.

The Guardiola effect on Europe’s best

The departure of Jupp Heynckes left a lot of questions concerning Bayern Munich for this season, despite the appointment of a talented successor in Pep Guardiola. Correctly answering these questions before the rest of the betting public could see big rewards for the sharp bettor.

Despite reaching three of the previous four Champions League finals, it was the dominant performance against Barcelona in the semi-final last season that saw a shift towards the Bavarians as the powerhouse of European soccer.

So what will the ‘Guardiola’ effect be?

Even before Jupp Heynckes had completed his record-breaking feat as manager, the German giants had announced that Pep Guardiola would replace him. So what will the ‘Guardiola’ effect be?

In the preseason Bayern won all nine games, scoring an average of 6.7 goals per game, although 15-1 and 13-0 wins over the Bayern Fanclub Wildenau and Paulaner Dream Team somewhat skew the data.

However, Guardiola, who won 13 trophies in four years at Barcelona, lost their first competitive game against rivals Dortmund 4-2 in the German Supercup.

With more pressure, more scrutiny and an almost perfect season to be compared against, is it plausible that Bayern could be the next victim of their own success?

How will Pep keep his big names happy? Can he maintain the work ethic Heynckes drilled into Bayern that saw Arjen Robben and Frank Ribery transform from lazy players into workhorses? Tactically, will he try and stamp his authority on a team that won the treble, and what effect could this have?

After all, the only place to go once you reach the top is down… just ask Barcelona.

Bundesliga against the spread – Bayern come up short

Comparing Asian Handicaps with actual match results is a good way to judge how accurate the market is at predicting a team’s performance. The closing odds typically show the most accurate handicap prediction, and therefore if the actual match results are way-off, teams have been either over- or underrated by the betting public. Noticing patterns in these results can help you take advantage of them, and the market’s ignorance.

One such pattern is Bayern Munich. While the Bavarians have covered the spread 49.48% of the time, they failed to cover the spread 61.76% of the time in last year’s record-breaking season. Despite their exceptional form, they were over-rated and a poor team to back against the spread.

Wolfsburg (11th), Werder Bremen (14th) and Stuttgart (12th) all underperformed last season, which was reflected in their form against the handicap (spread) – Wolfsburg (64.71%), Werder Bremen (61.76%) and Stuttgart (61.76%) were the worst three ATS (against the spread) teams in the Bundesliga.

Hannover covered the spread on 67.65% of occasions last season, 11.77% more than Borussia Monchengladbach – the second most successful team ATS last season. This shows bookmakers and the markets consistently underestimated Hannover’s ability. This is an example of a team where there is value to be had betting on them against the spread by appreciating their value.

Both Augsburg and Freiburg pushed six times last season against the average of 2.6, which suggests the bookmakers and markets had a more accurate prediction of their ability in terms of the outcome of their games.

Sustainability success for Dortmund & Freiburg

Another key question for bettors is will Dortmund and Freiburg sustain their form this season, or could changes cause them to be over or under rated?

Sustainability in soccer has always been an indicator for how successful teams perform year-on-year – Bayern have finished inside the top four in all of the last ten seasons, while Schalke have done so 70% of the time.

After surrendering their title to Bayern last season, Borussia Dortmund will be aiming to continue their fine form despite selling prize asset Mario Gotze to bitter rivals Bayern.

Can Freiburg sustain their form?

The BVB have finished inside the top five in 40% of the last ten seasons – all four of those appearances occurring in the previous four seasons. Manager Jurgen Klopp has built a squad based on youthful players, but what impact will the sale of Gotze have on the team?

To further Dortmund’s problems, top goal scorer over the past two seasons Robert Lewandowski has already announced he will leave for Bayern at the end of this season on a free transfer. What affect does this have on their sustainability?

Continually losing their best players makes a team reliant on producing replacement talent, however when that runs dry, so may their success.

Freiburg surprised many bettors last season by finishing fifth in the Bundesliga when they had averaged a 13th place finish in their last five seasons in the top flight.

However, success for a smaller team can see many players head for the exit before the start of the next campaign. So far this preseason Freiburg have lost six first team players on the back of their sensational performance last year.

Can Freiburg sustain their form, even if they don’t have the youth recruitment like Dortmund? If they can’t, then how much of an affect will it have?

Key Numbers – Pointers from the 2012/13 Bundesliga season

Last seasons Bundesliga was record breaking for a number of reasons, so here are a few key numbers that will interest bettors.

Despite having seven teams in the top 12 average attendances in European football, the Home Field Advantage (1.53 goals) – calculated by goals scored for the home team – on average for the Bundesliga is lower than the eight top domestic leagues around the world – Brazil, England, France, Italy, Holland, Portugal, Russia, Spain.

The 2012/13 Bundesliga season saw a huge 32% of away wins (matches won away from home), which has happened only once before since the Bundesliga’s inception in 1963. Bayern’s sensational season saw them win 88% of their away games, which could go some way to explaining why the value was so high.

In the Bundesliga last season though, 898 goals were scored at an average of 2.93 per game, which is more than seven big domestic leagues and only beaten by the Dutch Eredivisie (3.15 goals), while 56% of games saw more than three goals scored per game. In addition, an average of 1.34 goals per Bundesliga game were scored by the away side – more than every season since 1980/81.

Almost 3,000 corners were taken during last season, yet on average, a goal was scored every 46 corners (65 goals) – the lowest in the past decade. Corner and foul data is useful when betting live on the Bundesliga.

Despite fewer fouls committed throughout the season, the number of red cards increased. 64 red cards were issued – 50% of dismissals came as a result of second yellow cards – which was more than any season since 2003/04.

Movers & Shakers

Before betting on the new Bundesliga season be sure to research each team and find what transformations have happened during the close season to give yourself a chance of gaining an edge.

Despite losing a host of big players over recent years, Schalke remain one of the most consistent teams in the Bundesliga after rebuilding with youth. But with the sale of Lewis Holtby last year, how many more of their Wunderkind’s will be picked off?

Werder Bremen have appointed Robin Dutt as manager, a former youth manager at the German football federation. Dutt performed well at Freiburg – gaining promotion to the Bundesliga in 2007-08 but failed at Leverkusen. How will Dutt’s determination to succeed at Bremen affect their performance this season?

Wolfsburg were expected to challenge for the title last season, but struggled and finished 11th. After a failed second stint in charge, Dieter Hecking replaced Felix Magath. After winning the Bundesliga in 2009, can the Wolves return to genuine contenders this year?

Another reason to bet on the Bundesliga this season is that Pinnacle Sports have the highest limits, lowest margins and best odds.

Click here to see the latest Bundesliga odds.

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*Odds subject to change