Weight could prove decisive in Mayweather vs. Alvarez outcome

Weight could prove decisive in Mayweather vs. Alvarez outcome

By Michael Gales Sep 6, 2013

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Floyd Mayweather fights Saul Alvarez on September 14th with both fighters’ unbeaten records on the line. With a 152lb catch weight, how pivotal will the 2lb difference be? This preview looks at a number of subjective factors that could affect the outcome of the fight.

‘Power’ may cause an upset

Both fighters enter the ring unbeaten but it is Floyd ‘Pretty Boy’ Mayweather who is the big 1.385* favourite to keep his unblemished record, while Saul ‘El Canelo’ Alvarez is the 3.310* underdog.

Mayweather (44-0-0 26 KO) is renowned for not getting hit. At his best, his defense and the ability to manage danger has made him unbeatable.

Having been down just once in his career against Carlos Hernandez, ‘Pretty Boy’ has never fought anyone who could knock him out – Mayweather avoided the likes of Kostya Tszu and Manny Pacquiao on his way up the ranks, both who had a realistic chance of putting him down with one punch – like Alvarez can.

Floyd’s own punching power has come under question with just three knockouts in his last ten fights. Alvarez (41-1-0 30 KO) on the other hand has real punching power. He badly hurt Austin Trout last time out and has knocked out 73% of his opponents, and will carry a genuine threat to Mayweather.

Alvarez’s menace is resembled in the odds, with the youngster offered at 5.500* to win before the final bell, however the most likely outcome according to the bookmakers is a points win by Mayweather 1.671*.

Who will the 152-pound catch weight benefit?

With the fight agreed at a 152-pound catch weight, how will this impact on the fight and who will it benefit?

If the size difference wasn’t an issue, the fight wouldn’t be at the catch weight. So come fight night it could potentially be one of the most significant stats in this bout. While both fighters are a similar height, Alvarez is stockier and appears to be stronger.

Mayweather prefers to fight at 147lbs, which allows him to maintain his fast hands and carry enough power to keep his opponents wary in their approach. Interestingly ‘Pretty Boy’ has fought twice before at junior middleweight (154lbs), but never come in above 151lbs.

Alvarez in comparison is comfortable at 154lbs and will naturally grow into a middleweight. However, the Mexican has regularly hydrated up to above 170 pounds.

It’s this 20-pound difference that could decide the outcome of the fight. In recent bouts Mayweather has looked comfortable fighting on the ropes, countering his opponents as they look to force the fight, however against a heavy Alvarez he could risk becoming worn down if the Mexican leans his extra weight on him all night.

Mayweather may face the problem of having to use his movement to avoid Canelo, however at 36, moving away from a larger opponent maybe as exhausting as letting him lean.

Who will the 2lbs hinder more? Bettors need to consider whether Alvarez will be faster or drained and if Mayweather will be sluggish?

Master vs. the apprentice

At 23 Alvarez is entering his prime years, while Mayweather will be 36, an age when the majority of fighters are declining.

Fighters in their late 30s can age overnight. Mayweather however, is not like most fighters, and has showed no signs of declining when he beat Robert Guerrero by unanimous decision in May, while his technical genius is a perfect foil to disguise any normal signs of ageing.

If the size difference wasn’t an issue, the fight wouldn’t be at the catch weight

Still, Alvarez’s status as the younger, hungrier fighter will compliment his approach to bully and pressurise Mayweather. Despite being just 23 Alvarez is vastly experienced for his age with 42 fights to his name – made possible by Mexico’s lower age requirement of 15 for professional fighters.

The young Mexican has been a major draw in his homeland since his teen years, so being thrown into the media spotlight will not be as daunting as it would for most young fighters.

Still the difference in experience is substantial. ‘Pretty Boy’ has been fighting in title fights since Alvarez was a small child and will ultimately have the edge in experience. So far Austin Trout is the only world-class opponent Alvarez has faced in his prime – Shane Moseley was a shadow of his former self when Alvarez beat him.

The win over Trout established Alvarez as the top fighter in his division, however Mayweather is a big step-up in quality. ‘Pretty Boy’ meanwhile has shown no signs of falling from his own peak anytime soon, but at 36, how long can this continue?

Fight Stats

Both fighters’ career statistics show that Mayweather lands on average 24 punches more than his opponents compared to Alvarez who lands an average of 18 more.

The Mexican (42%) surprisingly has a 1% advantage in punches landed, however he also gets tagged with 24% of his opponents punches compared to just 17% for Mayweather.

Alvarez lands 52% of power punches compared to 48% for Floyd, while ‘Pretty Boys’ defence is highlighted once more as he evades 21% of his opponents power punches.

Expect Alvarez to fight on the front foot, as he is notoriously busy in rounds landing on average 20 punches per round, while Mayweather throws amongst the fewest punches per round in boxing with an average of just 23.

This fight has a number of interesting permutations that can influence the outcome of the fight. The better the bettor understand these, will be key behind them making a profit.

See the latest Mayweather vs. Alvarez odds

*Odds subject to change

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