Who will win the Derby d’Italia?

Who will win the Derby d’Italia?

By Charlie Rowing Sep 3, 2013

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Perhaps the biggest game in Italy in terms of history is Inter Milan vs Juventus, and the pair add another chapter in their rivalry at the San Siro in Week 3 of the Serie A season. Both sides have made a good start by winning their opening two games, but who will manage to edge out their arch rivals?

All-change at the San Siro

After a disastrous 2012-13 season, which saw the Nerazzurri finish in 9th place – failing to qualify for either the Champions League or the Europa League for the first time since 1999 – it is no surprise to see wholesale changes.

This started with the dismissal of Andrea Stramaccioni at the end of last season, replaced by Walter Mazzarri who walked away from Napoli to take charge of Inter. Mazzarri has revamped the squad, with the additions of experienced defenders Hugo Campagnaro and Rolando, whom he worked with at Napoli.

Inter have also signed a number of young prospects in the form of Ishak Belfodil, Mauro Icardi, Wallace and Saphir Taider – all 21 years old or under. Whilst this may be good for Inter’s future, it could be bad for their immediate season as the lack of experience could be telling as the season wears on.

Plus at a big club like Inter Milan they will have immense pressure put on them, will they be able to rise to the occasion when they play Juventus? Or will the experience of Juventus prove to be far too telling? Inter’s current odds to win the game are 3.870* despite home advantage, underlining the uncertainty the market has towards the new look side.

Inter have a lot to make up after last season, they were so bad that had you wagered 10 on them to lose every game on 1×2 you would have made 150 profit. They also conceded 57 goals, the joint-second most goals in Serie A – only Pescara (84) who finished bottom conceded more.

Things weren’t much better at the other end, as Inter only managed 55 goals, which gave them a negative goal difference of -2, something they haven’t had for over 10 years in Serie A. Inter were the only team in the top 10 to concede more goals than they scored.

So far they have made a good start beating Genoa 2-0 at home on the opening day, followed up by a 3-0 away win at Catania, who covered the spread 60% of the time last season – the most in Serie A. This game however, facing the Champions from the previous two season’s, is the first real test of the Mazzarri era.

Juventus looking to extend their dominance

After success last season, Juventus will be trying to make it three titles in a row. Antonio Conte’s men have signed Carlos Tevez, Fernando Llorente and Angelo Ogbonna in order to strengthen their grip on the Scudetto and to be more competitive in Europe.

A poor preseason saw Juve lose four games, but the Old Lady returned to form in their first competitive game with an impressive 4-0 victory over Lazio in the Italian Super Cup, one week before the start of the Serie A season. They then followed this up with a 1-0 away win in a tricky season opener to Sampdoria.

Showing that their win over Lazio was no fluke, they put another four goals past them in a 4-1 win at the Juventus Stadium.

Can Juventus keep their momentum going? They are priced at 2.150* to beat Inter.

Head-to-head: Inter Milan vs Juventus

• Last season Inter Milan ended Juventus’ 49 game unbeaten streak in an unexpected 3-1 away win.

• Juventus later got some revenge, as they were able to triumph 2-1 in Milan.

• Three out of the last four encounters between the two sides have had 3 goals or more. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.909*.

• Six out of the last 10 games have had less than 3 goals, so backing Under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.010*.

• Five of the last 20 encounters between the two clubs have ended in draws. The draw is available at 3.370*.

• Over the last 10 seasons (20 matches) Juventus have covered the spread 50% of the time; Inter covered the handicap in six matches with a push in the remaining four. Inter Milan are 2.100* to cover the handicap, whilst Juventus are 1.847*.

Click here to read our article on Serie A betting.

Click here for the latest Serie A odds.

*Odds subject to change

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