Particulars to be aware of when betting the 2013 MLB World Series

Particulars to be aware of when betting the 2013 MLB World Series

By Gary Wise Oct 21, 2013

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After thousands of games over the course of the season, MLB’s season is down to the World Series, a best of seven series between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Boston Red Sox. Whether or not you are a regular baseball bettor, the World Series provides unique betting opportunities, so let’s look at the particulars.

Does experience give the Cardinals an edge?

In 2011, the Cardinals won the World Series 4 games to 3 over the Texas Rangers. While their team has seen some turn over (most notably, Manager Tony La Russa and all-time great Albert Pujols are no longer with the club) the core bears some similarity to that championship team.

St. Louis also made the playoffs in 2010 and 2012, while Boston haven’t been to the playoffs since 2009. Experience is a difficult aspect to weigh, but if you believe in its importance, the edge goes to the Cardinals with a caveat; St. Louis’ success this year has been built in part on rookies.

Standout starting pitchers Michael Wacha, Joe Kelley and Shelby Miller along with first baseman Matt Adams have been key to the club’s success. Same seemingly goes for 2nd-year manager Mike Matheny, though there are those who feel his tactical game could use some work.

Recent World Series history between the two clubs is not relevant

The above details are relevant. Anything you may hear about recent World Series history between the two clubs is not. In coming days, we’ll be reminded time and again that in 2004, Boston won its first World Series in 88 years by demolishing St. Louis 4-0.

Only one player playing in this year’s edition, David Ortiz, was a full-time player for either team in 2004. The similarities are in the laundry, not in those executing the plays. We mention this as a reminder to focus on the data that matters.

Rule differences and the Designated Hitter

MLB is the only major professional organization whose two leagues operate under different rules. In the Cardinals’ National League (NL), pitchers who are generally unsuited to the task are forced to hit. In the American League (AL), the Designated Hitter (DH) hits in place of the pitcher. In interleague play, the home team’s league rules apply, so games 1, 2, 6 and 7 (all held in Boston’s Fenway Park) will use the DH, while games 3, 4 and 5 (hosted at Busch Stadium in St. Louis) will not.

This is important. The most obvious conundrum facing either manager in this series concerns what Boston’s John Farrell should do about 38-year old David Ortiz. One of the best hitters in baseball for the last decade, Ortiz is an atrocious fielder who is seldom given the chance to try. Of the 135 games Ortiz played this year, only 6 saw him take the field at first base, mostly because the DH rule afforded the Red Sox opportunity to let him hit without having to put on a glove.

Ortiz’s bat is potent enough (especially against right-handed pitchers; St. Louis won’t be starting any left-handers) that the Red Sox may try to get him into the lineup in games 3-5, meaning A) first baseman Mike Napoli, himself a strong hitter, may have to take a seat and B) the Red Sox’ defense would be weakened. Napoli’s bat has actually kept up with Ortiz‘s through the postseason, so lineup announcements will be important in assessing your bets. Either way, Boston loses a big bat while on the road.

As the DH goes, St. Louis is better situated than most NL teams. As we’ll see in a moment, most NL teams lack a true professional hitter to fill the DH slot on occasion leaving them at a deficit. For St. Luis, the emergence of Matt Adams has filled the void created by injury to all-star Allen Craig.

Will Home Field Advantage have a role?

As discussed in this article on playoff baseball, the home team wins 53.8% of all games played in MLB, but adjustments have to be made for sampling like this one. Both Cardinals (67%) and Red Sox (65%) had strong regular season home win percentages, with fans of both teams known for knowledge and passion. Additionally, Boston’s Fenway Park has unusual dimensions that are tough on players who haven’t played with them before.

Beyond the question of the two teams though is the question of how to account for the interleague home-field advantage in your betting calculations. Some, like Tigers Manager Jim Leyland, think the changes hurt American League clubs:

“We play with the DH rules. The American League gets penalized, even though the record’s been decent over the years. We get penalized. Their pitchers are hitting and bunting all year, and they get the advantage of letting their pitchers rest and using the DH when they come here, and we gotta use guys six straight days without Victor Martinez or Alex Avila or somebody. That’s ridiculous. Totally ridiculous, and they ought to look into it…”

It’s a good quote, but Leyland is dead wrong about where the advantage lies. Have a look at these win % numbers taken from Is There a Home Field Advantage in Interleague Play?, an in-depth look at interleague records from 1997-2009 by Economics Professor Paul M. Sommers:

Entity

Home/Away/All?

W%

AL

Home

56.9

AL

Away

46.8

AL

All

51.9

NL

Home

53.2

NL

Away

43

NL

All

48.1

In recent years, the AL has been considered the superior league, an effect of the arms race between the Red Sox and New York Yankees raising the level of competition. This accounts for the American League’s advantage overall, but what we’re seeing here is a greater home field advantage in interleague play (approx 5%) than in general terms (approx 3.8%). Ballpark familiarity could hold a sliver of influence here, but this is more likely a result of the influences Leyland mentioned, so his logic was sound even if he reached the wrong conclusion. Don’t do the same; adjust your calculations accordingly.

Click here for the latest MLB World Series odds.

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