Are bookmakers overvaluing City?

Are bookmakers overvaluing City?

By Michael Gales Sep 18, 2013

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Despite being the Premier League preseason favourites, Manchester City seem to be overvalued by bookmakers this season on the Asian handicap market. Ahead of the Manchester derby we look at the damning stats that confirm that City haven’t covered the handicap this season.

Man City: underachieving or overvalued?

Despite spending 100m on new players during the summer, Manchester City 2.180* (1x2 derby odds) are the only team so far this season not to have covered the spread on Pinnacle Sports’ Premier League handicap table.

Are Man City under-performing, or has their big money spending caused a huge over-estimation of their ability?

City have won their two home games so far this campaign, but lost and drew their two away games. Bettors backing City in the handicap market would be out of pocket as the citizens have failed to cover and pushed just twice.

The question bettors need to ask themselves is, are Man City under-performing, or has their reputation and big money spending caused a huge over-estimation of their ability in the handicap markets?

With a new manager at the helm and five new additions to the squad, is it just a question of time before Man City return to the level expected by the bookmakers, or will City be over-estimated for a long time to come?

Man United: a mixed bag for Moyes & co

In comparison, Manchester United 3.700* (1x2 derby odds) started the season with a rousing 4-0 away win at the Liberty Stadium against Swansea, but have since pushed twice in their 0-0 draw and 0-1 defeat against Chelsea and Liverpool respectively, while they failed to cover the handicap last time out in a 2-0 win against Crystal Palace at home.

In contrast to their City rivals, United endured a difficult transfer window and secured their only major signing of the summer in the final minutes as Belgian midfielder Marouane Fellaini signed joined-up with manager David Moyes once again.

The lack of additions may help United in the short term, as there isn’t an influx of new players that need to integrate into the squad – fundamentally the squad is the same which won the Premier League by 11 points last season.

Manchester Derby: head-to-head comparison

A glance at the handicap form over the past 10 Premier League Manchester derbies at the Etihad shows that City have covered the spread 50%, while United have 40% and there has been one push.

Manchester Derby against the handicap at the Etihad

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

30/11/2008

Manchester United

-0.5

17/04/2010

Manchester United

-0.25

10/11/2010

Push

0

30/04/2012

Manchester City

0.5

09/12/2012

Manchester United

0.25

However, a closer look shows that City have covered the spread at home in the Manchester derby just once since their takeover at the start of the 2008-09 season. Since then, City have lost three, drew one and lost one.

This is a good example of how the heavy investment in the squad has inflated City’s handicap above the skill of the squad, resulting in their failure to cover the handicap.

City are the 0.5 favourites. Are the bookmakers still overestimating City, or is this approach going to backfire as City struggle to blend in their new players and adapt to the style of play expected from new manager Manuel Pellegrini so early in the season?

Click here for the latest Manchester derby odds.

*Odds subject to change

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