How sudden death baseball differs from regular season MLB

How sudden death baseball differs from regular season MLB

By Gary Wise Sep 30, 2013

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Major League Baseball’s season is a marathon that ends in a sprint. With the 162-game schedule having completed on Sunday, we wanted to prepare you for Monday’s elimination tiebreaker and the Wildcard games to follow with a few thoughts on the past, formatting and stylistic differences that might prove crucial in determining where you’ll place your bets.

Fundamentally different approach

With games everyday during baseball’s regular season, the truth is that even the best teams win just 60% of their games; managers and players must work with an eye on maintenance. We see this influence in players being given days off, superior relief pitchers used sparingly, fielders choosing conservative approaches on difficult plays…all in the name of preservation. That ends now.

On Monday night, the Texas Rangers will play the Tampa Rays in a single game to determine who advances into the American League playoffs. Then, the winner will visit the Cleveland Indians, while the Cincinnati Reds visit the Pittsburgh Pirates, each for a single-game wildcard playoff. The losers of these games are done for the season, while the winners move on to the playoff series against division winners.

With the importance of winning individual games magnified, managers are far more likely to kick conservative choices and player egos to the curb. Where underperforming hitters might be given numerous chances to redeem themselves in the regular season, such liberties will not be taken in the playoffs.

Similarly, a manager will use his entire roster far more often, looking for situational improvements equivalent to only a few percentage points rather than coddling starting player egos. The time for that is over.

Who does this favour? Generally, teams with stronger pitching. Tampa appear well-set up for Texas with 2012 Cy Young winner David Price starting the tiebreaker with a strong bullpen to back him up. Note though that the Tampa bullpen was leaned upon quite heavily this weekend in their season-ending series vs Toronto, a fact that could influence manager Joe Maddon’s decisions. Additionally, while Price is one of the best starting pitchers in MLB, his record against the Rangers and in playoff games leaves something to be desired; In his career against the Rangers, he has a 5.98 ERA over 8 starts, more than a run higher than an average league pitcher. In three post-season starts (sample size warning), he has a 4.66 ERA and hasn’t won a game.

The Wildcard format looks stacked against the Cleveland Indians, who have had a shaky bullpen all season, but as you’ll read, there are other factors at play for them.

The hot hand

Speaking of the Indians, they set a franchise record by winning their final 10 regular season games. As good as they’ve been, it’s only slightly better than their sudden death counterparts; Tampa and Texas have each gone 8-2.

Pittsburgh are definitely the hotter of the NL wild card teams, having gone 7-3 in their last 10 to Cincinnati’s 4-6.

History

The single-game wildcard concept was introduced in 2012, so there’s not a lot of history to draw upon, but Texas are in a remarkably similar situation to a year ago, where they blew a late division lead, then lost the wild card game despite playing at home. Last years other host, the Atlanta Braves, also lost to the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis had gone 1-5 vs Atlanta in the regular season.

Travel

Travel is a non-issue in the National League, where both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are flying from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh. In the American League though, it’s a different story.

Cleveland make a short flight to Minnesota before a couple of days rest, while Texas go from Los Angeles to Arlington to play Monday, while Tampa must fly from Toronto to Arlington (a 4+ hour flight), then to Cleveland (another 3 hours) if they win the tiebreaker. How will the travel affect their chances?

Home Field Advantage

The home team held a 1308-1122 advantage in MLB games during the 2013 season, meaning they had a 53.8 % chance of winning. Some teams have a more-pronounced advantage than others though, due to comfort, fan support, unusual stadium build or other environmental factors. Of course, knowing which teams have a more pronounced home advantage could also be key to your single-game betting. Here’s a look at home and away records for each tiebreaker/wildcard team:

Home & Away records for tiebreaker/wildcard team

Team

Composite

Home

Away

AL Wildcard 1: Cleveland Indians

92-70

51-30

41-40

AL Wildcard 2 tiebreaker: Tampa Rays

91-71

51-30

40-41

AL Wildcard 2 tiebreaker: Texas Rangers

91-71

46-35

45-36

NL Wildcard 1: Pittsburgh Pirates

94-68

50-31

44-37

NL Wildcard 2: Cincinnati Reds

90-72

49-31

41-41

The Reds may be in trouble with their mediocre away record against Pittsburgh’s strong home stats, with the same true of Tampa in the tiebreaker game. When they visit Texas, they’ll have to hope that the Ranger’s unimpressive home record becomes a reality.

Day/Night

Also worth noting is the Rangers and Pirates records at night this season, as we see in the chart below:

Day/Night records

Team

Day record

%

Night record

%

Cleveland

33-20

62%

59-50

54%

Tampa

29-24

55%

62-47

57%

Texas

21-25

46%

70-46

60%

Pittsburgh

30-28

52%

64-40

62%

Cincinnati

34-27

56%

56-45

55%

Tampa and Texas start at 6:07 PM local time Monday, While Pittsburgh/Cincinnati start at 8:07 local time Tuesday. The schedule for the AL wildcard game will become official after the tiebreaker is completed.

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