Inconsistent start reflected in the odds

Inconsistent start reflected in the odds

By Charlie Rowing Oct 2, 2013

Tweet

Fierce rivals Juventus and AC Milan meet at the Juventus Stadium in week seven of the Serie A calendar. Can Milan get their season back on track after a stuttering start or will Juventus keep up their impressive start?

Inconsistent start for Milan

After finishing third last season the Rossoneri have made an indifferent start to their 2013/14 Serie A campaign – winning, drawing and losing two a-piece of their opening six games – form which doesn’t suggest a title challenge.

The transfer window was arguably one to forget for Milan. They secured the return of the ‘prodigal son’ Kaka from Real Madrid, but with the unpopular arrival of Alessandro Matri from Juventus – the fans protested against his signing, sighting the need for midfield and defensive players – and the sale of cult-hero Kevin-Prince Boateng, there has been a toxic atmosphere building around the San Siro.

Milan have kept a cleansheet in just 28% of their last 14 Serie A games

With mounting discontent at Milan, manager Max Allegri will try to turn his sides’ fortunes around for the trip to Turin despite being without star player Mario Balotelli – the striker is serving a three-match ban after threatening to kill the referee following their defeat to Napoli.

The fans’ concerns over the team appear to be justified as il Diavolo have conceded the most goals (10) in the top half of Serie A thus far. Leaking goals has been an issue for Milan who have kept a cleansheet in just 28% of their last 14 Serie A games.

AC Milan are currently 6.390* on the 1×2 against Juve, which is reflective of their mediocre start and the loss of their talisman for the game.

Juventus grinding out results… a sign of champions?

Apart from their 4-1 win over Lazio, Juventus haven’t started the season in an overly convincing fashion by their usual high standards. Four of their wins have been by a one-goal margin and they conceded first against both Hellas Verona and Chievo Verona. However, they’ve ground out the results and remain undefeated, with their only dropped points a 1-1 draw away to Inter Milan.

Antonio Conte has shown greater trust in his squad this season, rotating his team more than last term. This is shown by the fact that Paul Pogba is the only player to have played every minute of every game this season. Carlos Tevez has made an instant impact since his arrival from Manchester City in the summer and is the Old Lady’s top goalscorer along with Arturo Vidal.

The fact that the team clearly has a winning mentality engrained into them could be an explanation as to why they are currently 1.585* to win this match.

Head-to-head: Juventus vs AC Milan

In 188 games between the two sides Juventus hold the upper hand with 67 wins to AC Milan’s 58, with 63 draws.

Over the last 10 seasons, Juventus enjoy the better home record having recorded five wins in Turin, compared to Milan’s four victories at the San Siro.

Only one of the last six encounters have featured more than 2 goals, this is reflected by the handicap offerings being quite slim for both sides with Juventus at -1 (2.010*) and AC Milan at +1 (1.926*) which suggests a cagey encounter between the two.

However over the past 10 games in Turin there is a 50/50 split between matches that have gone over and under 2 goals. Over 2.5 and 3 goals is 2.000*, whereas Under 2.5 and 3 goals is available at 1.917*.

Only six of the last 20 encounters between the teams has resulted in a draw, with just two in the last 10 played in Turin, the draw is priced at 4.250*.

Interestingly there is a positive correlation between winning the Serie A title and gaining a positive result in Turin for both teams. In 31 seasons that Juventus won the Scudetto they only suffered two losses on home soil. AC Milan in 18 title-winning seasons have only suffered two defeats in Turin.

Click here to see the latest Juventus vs AC Milan odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.