Unpredictable weather a problem at Spa Circuit

Unpredictable weather a problem at Spa Circuit

By Michael Gales Aug 22, 2013

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Expect a dramatic race at the Spa-Francorchamps Circuit when the teams arrive for the Belgian Grand Prix. What will happen when unpredictable weather combines with the fastest track on the tour?

Spa-Francorchamps Circuit: Fast, dramatic racing expected

Three-weeks ago the Formula One teams visited the slowest permanent track: the Hungaroring. Now refreshed, they head to the quickest: Spa-Francorchamps.

Spa is a firm favourite with drivers and is widely considered the best track on the calendar, which is why winning Spa is considered to be one of the ultimate challenges of motor racing. At 4.3 miles the track pushes the car and driver to its limits over the 4.3-mile track, as cars can be on full throttle for around 80% of the lap – the longest on the F1 calendar.

Long straights usually require a low downforce set-up, however any attempt to take on the Spa-Francorchamps Circuit without plenty of grip is sure to cause trouble – a balanced set-up is essential.

It’s not just the speed and expansiveness of the track is that will affect the drivers at the Belgium Grand Prix, however. Another is the region’s unpredictable weather, which often means that drivers have to deal with different grip levels around the lap. It is not unusual for it to be pouring with rain in one section of the circuit, but for the track to be completely dry in another.

Weather can wreak havoc

A key characteristic to consider before betting on the Belgian GP is the variable weather conditions.  Historically, there is a high possibility of rainfall at Spa.

Because of the changing weather a drivers Strategy has to be flexible. The conditions can change extremely quickly, which then makes how the teams use their tyres key to success – as we have seen in the past.

With the weather historically erratic it is advisable to monitor the situation for both qualifying and the race.

Tyres & strategy a race changer

The drivers will have the hard and medium tyres available, which will be best suited for the high-energy demands of the circuit.

Managing the tyres is vital around Spa – the long track allows the teams to utilise a number of tyre strategies with plenty of time to be won and lost if the right tactics are chosen.

Last year’s winner Jenson Button used a one-stop strategy, while four-time winner Kimi Raikkonen stopped twice on his way to third place. There was plenty of variation in tyre choice last season – while most drivers started on the medium compound, Hulkenberg started on the hard tyre in 11th and finished fourth after a two-stop strategy.

Solid correlation between qualifying & finishing position

We have already proved there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here).

By using the same model we have examined the last ten Belgian Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Spa-Francorchamps Circuit as a race performance indicator.

Somewhat unsurprisingly, because of the erratic weather and high demands on the car historically associated with the Belgian GP the data shows a 0.44 correlation between qualifying and race position. Despite this, 60% of races correlate.

50% of pole sitters have gone on to win the Belgian GP in the last 10 GPs. This highlights that the variation during the lap means that starting from pole is not as important as it can be on other circuits.

Click here for the latest Belgian Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

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