Will JC Tran Win World Series of Poker Main Event?

Will JC Tran Win World Series of Poker Main Event?

By Gary Wise Oct 11, 2013

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Like sports betting, poker is a game where luck proves deceptive in an outsider’s assessment of the skill involved. JC Tran is historically the most superior player and the chip leader, so what are the factors one must weigh in assessing his chances of winning the WSOP main event bracelet?

Who is JC Tran?

The short answer is one of the best tournament no limit hold’em players in the world. Tran’s resume includes two WSOP bracelet victories, 40 WSOP cashes, a WPT win, 8 WPT final table appearances, a WPT player of the year award and over $9.5 million in career winnings, good for 24th all-time.

Considering the vast majority of those who rank ahead of him either started long before the 36-year old Californian, or have a single tournament prize that makes up the majority of their winnings (Tran’s biggest prize was $1,177,010), we’re legitimately talking about one of the consistently great tournament players of all-time.

The best player at the table

“JC is certainly a better player than me. I think he’s got to be the big favorite.” – Normally confident Mark Newhouse, a fellow final table player and the focus of our article on the chances of a short stack coming through to win the title.

Assessing the best player in poker is a subjective task, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find someone who disagrees with Newhouse’s sentiment. That doesn’t ensure victory though.

Looking back through recent years, it’s easy enough to earmark the player who’s garnered best player status heading into final table play.

Year

Player

Position

2004

Dan Harrington

4th

2005

Mike Matusow

9th

2006

Allen Cunningham

4th

2007

Alex Kravchenko

4th

2008

David “Chino” Rheem

7th

2009

Phil Ivey

7th

2010

Michael “Grinder” Mizrachi

5th

2011

Ben Lamb

3rd

2012

Greg Merson

Winner

2013

JC Tran

To be determined

Again, these selections are subjective and were based partially upon familiarity, but savvy and star power weren’t enough to propel any but Merson (who started his final table 3rd in chips) to heads-up play, let alone the championship.

The chip lead

Tran’s chances stand out from the collection of names above because he’s the only one to enter the final table with the chip lead. Holding the most chips in poker offers the wielder strength; there’s a threat that, at any time, the leader can make a bet that would force an opponent to make a decision for all their chips. This is especially intimidating in a tournament whose pay structure sees players making six- or seven-figures with each elimination:

Prize Structure

Position

Winnings

1st place

$8,359,531

2nd place

$5,173,170

3rd place

$3,727,023

4th place

$2,791,983

5th place

$2,106,526

6th place

$1,600,792

7th place

$1,225,224

8th place

$944,593

9th place

$733,324

“JC has a great chance to run the table,” admitted Newhouse. “No one wants to bust before me or [fellow short stack David Benefeld]. Pay jumps are just so big. There will be people who’ll realize that though, know JC is opening light and will try to move on him. There’s always another level.”

Of course, other big stacks have been in a similar situation. How have they fared?

Year

Final table chip leader

% of starting chips

Finish

Eventual winner

Final table opening chip rank

2004

Greg “Fossilman” Raymer

32.3%*

1st

Raymer

1st

2005

Aaron Kanter

19.1%

4th

Hachem

6th

2006

Jamie Gold

28.8%

1st

Gold

1st

2007

Philip Hilm

17.3%

9th

Jerry Yang

9th

2008

Dennis Phillips

18.9%

3rd

Peter Eastgate

4th

2009

Darvin Moon

31.3%

2nd

Joe Cada

5th

2010

Jonathan Duhamel

29.6%

1st

Duhamel

1st

2011

Martin Staszko

19.1%

2nd

Pius Heinz

7th

2012

Jesse Sylvia

22.2%

2nd

Greg Merson

3rd

The chip lead has produced better results than experience/recognition, with 3/9 recent winners taking the title. With the exception of Hilm’s blow up in 2007, the chip lead is good for insuring a deep run, but doesn’t guarantee anything beyond that.

While 3/9 is a good return, you’ll note those three winners achieved victory on the strength of monster chip advantage, with an average of over 30% of the chips in play. Tran’s 38,000,000 stack represents just 19.9%. In other words, he has a lot more work to do than those previous wire-to-wire winners.

Add it all up

Tran’s in something of a unique position, being the first player to combine the chip lead and the reputation, and he brings the advantage of having more experience playing under the intense stare of a worldwide audience than his table mates, but does that add up to the market that’s been set?

The 3.900* Tran sits at is a long way from the 5.000 his stack alone seemingly represents. Do skill, reputation, poise and the path to aggression paved by the two small stacks make up for what equates to a 5.4% uptick for non-chip percentage factors? Whether your answer is yes or no, you’ve just decided which side of the line you sit on. Now go and bet before those of a like mind move the line against you.

The Word Series of Poker Main Event will be held on November 4th -5th in Las Vegas. To bet it, click here for the latest odds.

*Odds subject to change

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