Sunderland perform better on the handicap away from home

Sunderland perform better on the handicap away from home

By Michael Gales Oct 16, 2013

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Sunderland travel to Wales on Saturday to play a Swansea team who have failed to win at home in their last 8 EPL fixtures. Despite underperforming recently, how much value does Sunderland offer the bettor on the handicap?

Sunderland perform well on the road

Languishing at the bottom of the Premier League table and winless, Sunderland have made a dreadful start to the season 2013/14 season.

After seven Premier League games the Mackems have just one point after suffering four home and two away defeats, with their solitary point coming at Southampton.

They have also performed poorly in the Pinnacle Sports’ EPL handicap table – covering the spread just once.

So where is the value in backing Sunderland? A look back at last season shows despite a relegation battle the Black cats performed well on the road against the handicap.

Surprisingly despite winning just four games on the road last year Sunderland covered the spread in an impressive 57.8% of games, almost double their home record (31.5%).

Despite winning 4 away games last season Sunderland covered in 57.8% of games

Sunderland supporters are renowned for their vocal passion, however when performances on the pitch slump, their anxiety and negativity can spread to the players, making it easier for them to play away from home, and therefore a better prospect for a handicap bettor when they are away from the Stadium of Light.

Can Poyet improve Sunderland?

Sunderland have appointed Uruguayan Gus Poyet as a replacement for sacked manager Paolo Di Canio.

The former Brighton manager will be hoping to turnaround Sunderland’s fortunes and add stability to a club which has seen seven managers – two caretakers – in charge in just seven years.

How much of an impact does a new manager have on his team for the first game? People often talk about an immediate impact of a new manager, however it often takes time to implement a new system, philosophy and improve confidence. Bettors frequently overlook the fact managers are usually sacked because of the players’ poor performances – leading to poor confidence – on the pitch.

Over the past two Premier League seasons, nine new managers have been appointed during the season. Between them only two – Martin O’Neill (Sunderland) and Robert Di Matteo (Chelsea) – have managed to win their first game in charge and both were home fixtures.

Swansea: a victim of their own success or adjusting to the Europa League?

Swansea meanwhile have performed above expectations in the Premier League. When they won promotion in 2010-11 they were expected to be the league’s whipping boys before the seasons start; how wrong the bookmakers were.

With their possession-based football Swansea finished an impressive 11th and then under the guidance of Michael Laudrup, finished ninth and won the club’s first domestic cup competition the following season.

As a consequence of their cup success Swansea won a place in the Europa League and have had to adapt to a busy schedule.

With a small squad, how have Swansea adapted to life in the Europa League and managed growing expectations?

In their first season in the Premier League Swansea covered the spread 50%, while they dropped off to 47% last season as the bookmakers wised up to their ability.

So far this season they have covered the spread 42.9% of the time – failing to do so in their last two games. Is this a sign that the exertions of mid-week European football is having a negative impact domestically or are they being overvalued by the bookmakers because of their past success?

Swansea vs. Sunderland: Head-to-Head record

In four Premier League encounters between Sunderland and Swansea there have been three draws and one win for Sunderland.

On the Asian Handicap market however, Sunderland have covered the spread 75% of the time and in both games at the Liberty Stadium – with that said four games isn’t a large data set.

It is worth noting that Swansea have failed to win at home in their last eight Premier League games – losing five and drawing three. Despite this Swansea are the current -1 favourites as the bookmakers expect Sunderland’s troubles to continue for the next game at least.

Click here to see the latest handicap odds between Swansea City and Sunderland.

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