The Singapore Grand Prix: When the lights go down

The Singapore Grand Prix: When the lights go down

By Michael Gales Sep 20, 2013

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Following two fast circuits in the heartland of Europe – Spa and Monza – Formula One is now headed for the Singapore Grand Prix - the ultra-modern Singapore street circuit, which is the only race on the calendar run at night under street lamps.

The effect of the lightening on the drivers is not that dramatic as the track is lighter than at midday on a sunny day and four times brighter than a football stadium.

In addition to the nighttime race there are a number of other factors that make the Marina Bay circuit unique.

In terms of duration, this is usually the longest race of the year as it often comes close to the two-hour time limit, which means that the cars carry the heaviest fuel load of the season.

It’s also one of the most humid (between 75% and 90%) races of the year, and statistically there’s a high chance of rain and a safety car. All these elements can affect tyre wear and degradation as well as a drivers race strategy.

Track easier on the tyres

The drivers will have the medium and supersoft tyre available for the race and qualifying. The Marina Bay circuit is bumpy – a typical feature of street circuits –which compromises grip and traction, and given the traction is fundamental around this track due to 23 corners, drivers face the battle of driving with a lack of grip.

Despite the cars carrying the heaviest fuel loads of the year, which can have a direct effect on tyre wear, the track is relatively easy going on tyres. For the drivers though it’s a different story: the high temperatures, humidity, and length of the race demand a lot physically.

The two previous races at Spa and Monza are historically hard on tyres, however the Singapore GP throws up new challenges, which will allow teams to formulate a number of different strategies.

Strategy

Race strategy at Singapore has to be flexible in order to take into account the high safety car probability (there were two safety car periods last year) and the possibility of rain.

12 months ago the three podium finishers all used a two-stop strategy, while the entire top ten on the grid started on the supersoft compound.

Correlation

Previously, we’ve proved that there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here).

By using the same model, we examined all five Singapore Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Marina Bay circuit as a race performance indicator.

The data shows a 0.58 correlation between qualifying and race position. In addition to the strong relationship the data highlights 60% of races correlate, showcasing that qualifying at the Singapore GP provides a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

Three of the five polesitters have secured the win. The data also highlights if you have a smooth race there is a good chance of winning from pole as the two drivers that failed to do so had incidents which resulted in the 15th and 24th finishes respectively.

Click here for the latest Singapore Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

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