Arsenal formidable on the road…and against the handicap

Arsenal formidable on the road…and against the handicap

By Michael Gales Oct 1, 2013

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Arsenal travel to the West Midlands on Sunday to play a West Brom team full of confidence following their 3-2 win at Old Trafford. The Gunners have won their last 8 Premier League away games, but how much value do they offer the punter against the handicap?

Arsenal look invincible on the road. But how long can it last?

What a difference a month makes. The toxic atmosphere that rang around the Emirates after Arsenal suffered an opening 3-1 home defeat to Aston Villa has long disappeared as the Gunners sit two-points clear at the top of the Premier League table – following five straight wins.

In eight trophy-less seasons Arsenal have had a number of opportunities to end that trend but have failed to translate that potential into success. One major flaw in the Gunners’ armoury has been their frailty on the road as they struggled to adapt to smaller pitches, physical opponents, and different teams’ soccer philosophies.

However, not only has this Arsenal team won five games in succession, they have also won their last eight Premier League games away from home. In fact they have won 11 of their last 12 away games in all competitions, with their only failure to win coming in a 1-1 draw against West Brom in the Capital One cup this season.

Is this a sign that Arsenal have shed their lightweight persona and are now more capable of adapting to different situations, therefore giving them a genuine chance of winning silverware?

So with five straight wins in the Premier League is their any value in betting on the Gunners against the handicap?

A look at the Pinnacle Sports EPL handicap table highlights that Arsenal are the most successful team so far this season covering the spread in 83.3% of the games – all but their opening defeat to Aston Villa. Last season they only covered the handicap 42% of the time.

This highlights that Arsenal have performed better than the bookmakers had perceived them to do so far this season. Is this a sign that the Gunners have transformed, is it a bubble that is about to be burst as they regress to the mean, or will expectations change overvaluing them?

Are West Brom overachieving or undervalued?

Despite a poor start to this season – two defeats and two draws – West Brom have won their last two games to climb out of the relegation zone and into tenth place.

Manger Steve Clarke continued the good work previously instated by Roy Hodgson last season as he orchestrated an eighth place finish – their highest ever in the Premier League.

On a limited budget West Brom have overachieved since their return to the Premier League with finishes of 11th and 10th before last season. So has this overachievement been reflected in their performance against the handicap?

Last season they covered the handicap just 47% of the time, which shows they matched expectation fairly closely. So far this season they have covered 67% of their games – including their last three.

Head-to-Head

Tottenham vs. Chelsea: Comparison at White Hart Lane

W.B.A vs Arsenal: Against the spread at The Hawthorns

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

Result

26/12/2002

Push

1

1-2

02/05/2005

Arsenal

-0.75

0-2

15/10/2005

W.B.A

0.25

1-1

03/03/2009

Arsenal

-1

1-3

19/03/2011

W.B.A

0.5

2-2

13/05/2012

Arsenal

-0.75

2-3

06/04/2013

Arsenal

-0.75

1-2

Historically West Brom have performed poorly at home in the Premier League against Arsenal. The Baggies have lost five, won one and drew one of their seven games at the Hawthorns against the Gunners. But how have they performed against the handicap?

Not very well. They have only covered the handicap twice (28%) at the Hawthorns against Arsenal in the Premier League.  However, with Arsenal having played a tough Champions League game in midweek against Napoli, and given the Gunners’ squad is thread-bare, is this an opportunity for bettors to bet against Arsenal on the handicap?

Arsenal are the current -0.5 favourites – the joint-smallest handicap against the Baggies in the Premier League. Is this a reaction to West Brom’s win at Old Trafford, or a sign that the bookmakers consider Arsenal to have been overachieving or if you disagree an opportunity to gain value?

Click here to see the latest handicap odds between Arsenal and West Brom.

*Odds subject to change

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