Pole vital around Monza

Pole vital around Monza

By Michael Gales Sep 5, 2013

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With 80% of pole sitters taking the checkered flag at Monza over the past 10 seasons, qualifying is even more important in the Italian Grand Prix than a typical F1 race. Read this preview ahead of the Italian Grand Prix on September 8th to gain an edge.

Monza: ‘the temple of speed’

The last stop on the European tour of the season sees the drivers and teams arrive at the historic Monza circuit for the 2013 Italian Grand Prix on September 8th. Having been through several incarnations since 1922, the modern circuit is now very different from the original, although the historic banking remains.

The race can be short as the cars rattle around the 190-mile distance in less than 90 minutes. Monza has been called ‘the temple of speed’ because it’s the quickest circuit. A remarkable 75% of the lap is spent on full throttle, which is combined with some heavy braking areas. The circuit puts considerable forces on the tyres and requires high levels of mechanical grip.

Tyres/strategy

Pirelli have selected the same compounds – hard and medium – used at Spa two weeks ago. Car set-up will be a compromise between the fast and slower sectors of the circuit. With the tyres playing a crucial role at Monza, it will allow for several strategy opportunities.

Twelve months ago the top two – Lewis Hamilton and Sergio Perez – used a one-stop strategy, with Perez claiming the runner-up spot from 13th on the grid after starting on the hard and switching to the medium, while Hamilton did the opposite. The highest-placed driver to use a two-stop strategy was Michael Schumacher, who finished 6th.

Correlation

Previously, we’ve proved that there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here). By using the same model, we examined the last ten Italian Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at Monza as a race performance indicator.

The data shows a 0.56 correlation between qualifying and race position at Monza.  In addition to the strong relationship the data highlights 70% of races correlate, showcasing that qualifying at Monza provides a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

An impressive 80% of pole sitters have gone on to win the Italian GP in the last 10 GPs. This highlights that starting from pole is vital in securing an advantage for the race around Monza.

Vettel & Alonso keen to leave a mark

The two drivers  – Sebastian Vettel 2.840* and Fernando Alonso 4.360* – leading the World Championship will be hoping to claim victory at Monza, while both arrive at this year’s race chasing the same goal – the first to three Italian GP wins.

Between the two they have won four of the last six races at Monza – Alonso in 2007 & 2010, Vettel in 2008 & 2011 – and should either win on Sunday they would become the eighth driver to win more than twice at the historic circuit since 1950.

If Alonso or Felipe Massa secure the win for Ferrari it will give the Italian manufacturers their 19th home F1 win. Interestingly, last year’s winner Lewis Hamilton 4.850* could become the first driver since Damon Hill in 1993-94 to win at Monza in consecutive years.

Click here for the latest Italian Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

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