How will the new format changes impact the season?

How will the new format changes and Winter Olympics impact the season?

By Michael Gales Sep 27, 2013

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With the 2013/14 NHL season starting on Tuesday we look at both the new divisional format and the Sochi Olympics to see what impact they will have on the team’s prospects of Stanley Cup Glory.

NHL Divisional Changes, what do they mean and who will it impact?

Before betting on the 2013/14 NHL season there are a number of format changes you will need to understand.

In the NHL’s first realignment since 1998, the season is going from six divisions to four as the Detroit Red Wings and Columbus Blue Jackets move east and the Winnipeg Jets move west. The table below shows the three teams records against their new conferences over five seasons.

Teams’ Record vs. New Conferences (W L D)

Season

Detroit

Columbus

Winnipeg

2011-12

10-7-1

6-9-3

8-9-1

2010-11

12-4-2

11-4-3

6-10-2*

2009-10

9-6-3

8-7-3

8-7-3*

2008-09

12-5-1

6-9-3

8-9-1*

2007-08

7-2-1

6-3-1

5-5-0*

Total

50-24-8

44-26-12

35-39-8

*as the Atlanta Thrashers

The four divisions are named Atlantic, Metropolitan, Central and Pacific. The Atlantic and Metropolitan divisions make up the Eastern Conference and each division has eight teams, while the Central and Pacific divisions make up the Western Conference and have seven teams in each division – which makes it statistically easier to qualify in the West.

The new format ensures that the each team will play each other at least once home and away during the season. The Stanley Cup Playoffs will still consist of 16 teams, eight from each conference, but will be division-based, while a wild-card system has been added.

The top three teams in each division will make up the first 12 teams in the playoffs. The remaining four spots will be filled by the next two highest-placed finishers in each conference -regardless of division – based on regular-season points. Which means it will now be possible for one division to send five teams to the postseason while the other sends just three.

It is statistically easier to qualify for the playoffs in the West

Despite having less travel thanks to the changes in format, the Detroit Red Wings (4.820* to win Atlantic Division) – who have made the playoffs in 22 consecutive seasons – may struggle initially to adapt.

The East conference has generally been viewed as a physical conference and the West has been considered a skating conference. The Red Wings are not a stereotypical Western team and it may take time to adjust.

It leaves bettors deciding whether the bonus of less travel and more time at home outweighs the need to adapt their style? While the move looks like an obvious advantage, could actually threaten the Red Wing’s immediate record of 22 straight playoff appearances as they adapt their style to suit the Western Conference.

What impact will an Olympic year have on the NHL?

With the Olympics approaching in early 2014 bettors should question whether or not Sochi 14 will have a negative impact on participating NHL players – because of the break.

Bettors should ask themselves how much an Olympics will affect a player’s club? Will fatigue affect a player’s ability both mentally and physically and will it lead to more injuries at a key time in the season?

Injuries are part and parcel of Ice Hockey and a player runs the risk of picking up a knock every time he enters the ice. With the possibility of playing seven extra games, the likelihood a player will get injured increases, which could have the potential to damage a team’s chances of competing for the Stanley Cup.

By potentially playing a maximum of seven games, mental fatigue is perhaps more appropriate – as the player has the expectation of a nation rather than a club on his shoulders -, which will affect a players motivation. For instance after representing your country in the Olympics, will a player have the same motivation playing for their franchise? With that said player’s will more than likely be returning when their team is gearing up for a run at the Stanley Cup.

Another aspect to the debate surrounds the players who are not picked to represent their nations. How will the players react going from the intensity of the NHL to training and friendly games for two weeks? Will they then be able to regain the intensity they had prior to the Olympics or will the rest work as a benefit by allowing their bodies time to recover from the grueling season?

Canada are 2.940* to win the Winter Olympics.

So what do the stats suggest?

Daniel Wagner looked at goaltender stats based on the 2009-10 season to see if there was an impact on the save percentages of the goaltenders who participated in the 2010 Olympics.

He found that only four of the 15 goaltenders that went to the 2010 Olympics had higher save percentages post-Olympics than they did pre-Olympics, while the average save percentage has dropped to a negative. Four goaltenders saw there save percentage fall by 20 or more compared to more modest increases from those who improved.

Does this data prove that playing in the Olympics tends to make goaltenders worse upon their return to the NHL? Not exactly as the data is from just one season therefore the sample size may skew the results. Bettors are advised to gather research for the Olympic games since 1998 and for other positions to see if this is a trend that stands the test of time and is not just relative too goaltenders.

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*Odds subject to change

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