Qualifying vital at Hungaroring

Qualifying vital at Hungaroring

By Michael Gales Jul 25, 2013

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After a three-week break Formula One arrives at the Hungaroring for the Hungarian Grand Prix on July 28th. With 97% of winners starting on the front two rows of the grid, a solid qualifying performance is vital.

The Hungaroring Circuit – green, tight & slow

After a three week break Formula One arrives at the Hungaroring for the 27th Hungarian Grand Prix and 10th round of the 2013 Formula One calendar.

The 10th Formula One of 2013 takes place on a twisty circuit that takes full advantage of the natural terrain, using the bumps and peaks of the valley to create a unique driving challenge. The tight and winding track features 14 corners and an average speed in the region of 180kph making it the second-slowest circuit of the year after Monaco.

Despite being a track circuit the venue is only used once a year, meaning the surface becomes very dusty and ‘green’. Consequently its characteristics become similar to a temporary street circuit, where the track is at its quickest on the final lap of the race weekend.

This dust means it is difficult for drivers to go off the racing line to attempt an overtaking move as the dirt on the tyres makes the car difficult to drive for the next corners. The challenges facing the teams and drivers at the Hungaroring are a complete contrast to the Nurburgring.

Tyres could be a lottery

Pirelli will bring the medium and soft compounds – the same nomination as last year. Importantly, the construction of the tyres has changed, with the 2012 structure matched with the 2013 compounds.

The new construction was successfully tested at Silverstone last week during the young driver test. All teams apart from Mercedes – the German team was banned from testing after an illegal tyre test earlier in the season – will have benefitted from the opportunity to adapt the set-up of their cars to best suit the new tyres.

With temperatures expected to reach 40c over the weekend the tyres will come under punishment. Lateral energy will be low around the track – slow twisty track – so tyre performance rather than durability will be the limiting factor.

Overtaking is notoriously difficult, so teams will look to gain an edge through tyre and race strategy to gain track position. The combination of soft and medium tyres will provide a number of chances to employ a number of mixed strategies.

Start on the front two rows of the grid

It is no coincidence that the Hungaroring track averages just 17.48 overtakes per race. Because of the infrequent use of the track, it takes more cars running through the track until a clean line emerges. However, because there is only one clear line around the narrow circuit, a lot of dirt, dust and marbles accumulate off the racing line, making the problem of overtaking even harder – meaning a good qualifying performance is vital.

Another indicator of the difficulty in overtaking in Hungary is that 97% of the last 23 Grand Prix have been won by a driver starting on the front two rows on the grid – the only exception was Jenson Button’s victory in 2006 when he won from 14th.

Solid correlation between qualifying & finishing position

We have already proved there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here).

By using the same model we have examined the last ten Hungarian Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Hungaroring as a race performance indicator.

The data shows a strong 0.64 correlation between qualifying and race position at the Hungaroring. Interestingly, the correlation is amongst the strongest so far this season.

A good 70% of races correlate, with just three GP’s having a poor correlation – 2006 (0.21), 2009 (0.46) and 2010 (0.45). Interestingly the worst correlation in 2006 was due to variable weather. This correlation proves that qualifying at the Hungarian GP provides a strong predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

47% of pole sitters have gone on to win the Hungarian GP in the last 23 GPs, proving that pole position gives you a chance but not a certain victory around the Hungaroring.

Click here to see the latest Hungarian Grand Prix odds.

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*Odds subject to change