Master vs. Apprentice: Mourinho takes on AVB

Master vs. Apprentice: Mourinho takes on AVB

By Michael Gales Sep 25, 2013

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Tottenham host Chelsea on Saturday, which sees the Master (Jose Mourinho) go against the Apprentice (AVB) for the first time. However, our EPL handicap table shows it’s actually AVB who has the edge over his old mentor in exceeding handicap expectations this season.

Spurs surpassing expectations this season…so far

Despite the sale of star player Gareth Bale to Real Madrid for a world record 86 million transfer fee in the summer, Spurs have started the season in solid form – four wins and one defeat.

AVB restructured his squad in the summer by replacing seven first team players with a better quality of player – who have appeared to settle well in their North London surroundings.

Tottenham are currently joint-top of the league having scored five and conceded just one – joint best defence in Europe – in their five games this season.

In their five previous games this season Spurs have covered the handicap four times and have only failed once, away against their North London rivals Arsenal in a 1-0 defeat.

Spurs sit joint top of the Pinnacle Sports Handicap table with an 80% record alongside Stoke City and Arsenal. This highlights that Tottenham have surpassed the bookmakers expectations this season.

The ‘Special One’ a victim of past success

The return of Jose Mourinho was hailed as the ‘Special One’ comes home, but so far ‘Jose 2.0 has not lived up to expectations.

Five games into his return, Chelsea have won their three home games but been less than impressive in two tough games on the road – they go into this game with one defeat (Everton) and one draw (Manchester United).

Tasked with the implementation of a more possession based philosophy, Mourinho has stated his impact will initially be less dramatic than it was in his debut season in 2004/05 when he won the league, as he strives to find his best 11.

Bookmakers could be forgiven for putting this down to another attempt at ‘mind games’, however five games in Chelsea have according to our EPL Handicap table, only covered the spread in two games – at home to Hull and Fulham.

What this shows is that bookmakers have overvalued Chelsea’s strength, especially given they have finished third and sixth in the two previous seasons.

The handicap inflation maybe down to believing the ‘Mourinho’ factor would have an instant impact – like it did in his first spell at Chelsea, Inter and Real Madrid.

Smart bettors will have been fading the Blues, and alert to backing Chelsea to cover the spread when ‘things’ finally click.

Tottenham vs. Chelsea: Comparison at White Hart Lane

Tottenham vs Chelsea: Against the spread at White Hart Lane

Date

Covering Team

Handicap

Result

19/03/2008

Tottenham

0.5

4-4

21/03/2009

Tottenham

0.5

1-0

17/04/2010

Tottenham

0.5

2-1

12/12/2010

Tottenham

0.25

1-1

21/12/2011

Push

0

1-1

20/10/2012

Chelsea

0.25

2-4

Tottenham versus Chelsea has always been a feisty encounter with no love lost between the two London rivals.

The Lilywhites have covered the spread 66% of the time against Chelsea at White hart Lane over the past six seasons, but have failed to cover in the last two seasons – This shows that bookmakers have historically overvalued Chelsea at White Hart Lane, but not most recently.

Interestingly for only the second time in seven seasons there is a level handicap of 0 with Spurs at 1.926* & Chelsea at 2.010*, highlighting that bookmakers are unsure as to which way this game will go. Is this evidence that bookmakers have realised they have been overrating Chelsea, or does it reflect the improvement Spurs have made?

Master vs. the Apprentice

AVB was Mourinho’s assistant at Porto, Chelsea and Inter Milan and the pair have the Porto and Chelsea jobs in common, along with both learning their trade under Bobby Robson. However, their relationship cooled when the Spurs manager decided to forge his own managerial career.

Despite the fact neither adversaries talk to each other, there is still a mutual respect between the two managers. Mourinho and AVB have never pitted their wits against one another, so the first outing between the Master and the Apprentice will be intriguing, but who will prevail?

Click here for the latest Premier League odds.

*Odds subject to change

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