8 important Champions League trends

8 important Champions League trends

By Michael Gales Sep 12, 2013

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With experience, team nationality and past manager success key indicators to winning the Champions League, it’s in a bettor’s interest to read these eight key Champions League betting trends.

Champions League Experience key to success

70% of winners in the past 20 years – and all of the last eight – have been involved in the competition at the Group stages the previous year.

Unsurprisingly, all ten teams favoured by Pinnacle Sports on the Champions League outright markets were involved in last year’s group stages. In fact, eight qualified to the second round, with only Chelsea and Manchester City failing to advance to the knockout stages.

Tough task for favourites Bayern Munich

After last year’s near perfect season, and the addition of Pep Guardiola as manager, defending champions Bayern Munich are once more penned as 4.690* pre-tournament favourites.

Despite plenty of teams being favourites to retain the title in the past, no team has managed the feat in the last 24 years – AC Milan were the last side to do so back in the 1989-90 Champions League.

Can the Bavarians break the hoodoo and do what they did in 1974 and 1975 and defend the European Champions League crown?

The Country Phenomena

The Champions League winners have not come from the same nation in consecutive seasons in the last 23 years. And excluding Milan’s back-to-back titles in ’89 & ’88, no Champions League winner has come from the same nation consecutively since 1982.

Contrary to this, Bayern are favourites to lift the cup, while beaten 2013 finalists Dortmund can be backed at 15.000* as the ninth favourites.

Successful domestic season 12 months earlier

In the past two decades, 80% of Champions League winners finished inside the top two positions of their respective domestic leagues the previous season, while 60% have won their respective leagues.

2012 winners Chelsea 8.850* have finished sixth and third over the past two seasons, despite being outlined as fourth favourites to lift this year’s title. Back in 2009, Barcelona were the last team to win the Champions League after finishing outside the top two 12 months earlier.

New winners are a rarity

Teams who have never lifted the Champions League trophy have historically struggled to break the mold set by the big clubs since Barcelona’s inaugural win in 1992. In the 21 years preceding this year’s competition, only three new winners have lifted the famous trophy – Marseille (1993), Dortmund (1997) and Chelsea (2012).

The CL winners have not come from the same nation consecutively since 1982.

Country Breakdown

Only two teams have won the Champions League in the past 20 years outside of Spain, Italy, England and Germany. In fact, 15 of those have been English, Spanish or Italian.

The top nine favourites with Pinnacle Sports to lift the trophy this term are from the four major nations, with big spending French giants PSG the highest-rated outsider, offered at 13.500*.

Successful manager key

A manager’s form in the competition can be seen as a trend in recent times. Five of the last seven winning managers have already lifted the trophy previously.

Jose Mourinho, Carlo Ancelotti and Pep Guardiola have each lifted the Champions League trophy twice before, and it is not surprising that their respective clubs Chelsea, Real Madrid 5.680* and Bayern Munich are three of the top four favourites to win.

Early form a key indicator

75% of Champions League winning teams over the past 20 years have won their respective groups earlier in the tournament, including seven of the last eight winners.

Click here to see Pinnacle Sports’ latest Champions League outright odds

*Odds subject to change

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