Are Arsenal underrated in the Premier League?

Are Arsenal underrated in the Premier League?

By Michael Gales Oct 29, 2013

Tweet

Arsenal and Liverpool go head-to-head on the weekend, but while they might be neck-and-neck in the Premier League, Arsenal are doing much better on the handicap tables. Could this form continue on Saturday – or will Liverpool outperform expectations?

Arsenal top of the Handicap table 

Arsenal continued their good form in the Premier League with a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace on the weekend to remain two-points ahead of Chelsea and Liverpool at the top of the EPL.

Arsenal are the best performing team against the spread this season

The Gunners’ (W7 D1 L1) current eight game unbeaten run means the 1×2 markets might not provide much value, so does the handicap offer the bettor a healthier return?

Arsenal are the best performing team against the spread this season and sit top of the Pinnacle Sports’ Handicap Table having covered 78% of the time. At home, they have covered all their games aside from their opener against Aston Villa. Topping the handicap table means that Arsenal have been undervalued over the past few games, as they have been performing above bookmaker expectations.

Therefore the question for the Liverpool games is – are Arsenal being badly undervalued, or are the bookmakers expecting them to regress back to their perceived level in the near future? Realising this early enough, offers the bettor an opportunity to make a profit.

Goals should also be expected at the Emirates, as Arsenal find the net on average 2.25 times per game, scoring in all nine of their Premier League games so far (an average of +1 goal superiority). The north London side also concede 1.25 goals/game.

Liverpool cover 50% on the road

Brendan Rodgers’ team can leapfrog Arsenal with a win at the Emirates on Saturday. Liverpool are in fine form and unbeaten in their last four Premier League games.

The Reds have made a flying start to their campaign and in Daniel Sturridge (8) and Luis Suarez (6) have the most potent strikeforce in the Premier League with 14 goals between them. But how well does Liverpool’s free scoring form equate against the handicap?

Despite sitting joint-second in the EPL, winning 66% of their games and holding a plus eight-goal difference, they have only covered 44.4% of the time this season.

Importantly for this fixture, Liverpool are unbeaten and have covered 50% of their games away from Anfield. A closer look at their fixtures played, however, highlights that apart from Man United and Southampton, they have played no one inside the top eight of the EPL.

Does this suggest they are appearing better than they are, therefore presenting an opportunity for savvy bettors to foresee a downturn in their fortunes?

How they both perform against the ‘Big’ teams 

It’s useful for bettors to gauge a team’s strength. To do this, a team’s performance must be analysed against a team with similar relative strength.

We have gathered handicap betting data for the last five seasons to see how well Arsenal and Liverpool have performed against the spread when playing Man United, Man City, Tottenham and Chelsea home and away respectively.

At the Emirates, Arsenal have won 40% of games but failed to cover the spread 61.5% of the time, showing that the Gunners have been overvalued in recent years at home against the better teams.

In comparison, Liverpool have won just 24% of games against the ‘big’ teams but have covered the spread in almost half (48%). What this suggests is that Liverpool may not win on the road against the big teams, but are more likely to cover the handicap.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool: Head-to-Head

In the previous ten encounters at Arsenal, the Gunners have won four, Liverpool once and there have been five draws.

Despite only winning one game at Arsenal in ten attempts, Liverpool have covered the handicap 60% of the time – including the last three Premier League games at the Emirates.

The odds on the handicap reflect both teams good form, with Arsenal set as the slight 0 &-0.5 2.000* favourites, compared to Liverpool who are offered at 0 & 0.5 1.943* underdogs.

There has been an average of 2.8 goals per game, with both teams failing to score just once each – in 2011 when Arsenal lost 0-2 and in 2010 when the Gunners ran out 1-0 winners.

Will Arsenal continue their handicap table-topping form? Or can Liverpool show their ability to outperform expectations when on the road against the big teams?

Click here to see the latest Arsenal vs Liverpool odds.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.