Tropical storm could upset the odds

Tropical storm could upset the odds

By Michael Gales Oct 4, 2013

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Formula One rolls into Mokpo this weekend with Vettel leading Alonso by 60 points. The Korean Grand Prix is 14th on the 19 race calendar leaving 125 points up for grabs , so there is plenty still to race for and with a tropical storm expected close to the circuit, F1 bettors should be aware of the potential for an unpredictable race.

Circuit: Is pole an advantage?

The Yeongam circuit is situated close to Mokpo, to the south of the country and contains both fast and slow technical sections.

Hermann Tilke created the 3.49-mile circuit which features his trademark long straight followed by a hairpin between turns two and three. The straight is the longest in F1.

One major criticism of the track is the way the grid is aligned. Watch a re-run of last year’s race and the flaw is blatantly apparent with the inside line for the first corner afforded to cars starting on the dirty side of the grid i.e. drivers who performed less impressively as the car in front of them.

It’s for precisely this reason that Sebastian Vettel, starting from second place alongside Mark Webber, took the lead despite making an average start. It goes further though as by lap five every top-ten qualifying car starting on the right-hand side of the grid had lost position to the car which had lined up to its left.

F1 organisers are monitoring a Tropical Storm that is passing through parts of Asia

Twelve months later, will race organisers respond by placing the pole-sitter on the dirty side of the grid?

Tyre degradation should create exciting strategy opportunity

Like the previous race in Singapore the medium and supersoft compounds have been nominated for the Korean Grand Prix.

The Korea International Circuit is rarely used outside of the grand prix, so there will be a high degree of track evolution over the course of the weekend.

With an interesting mix of fast and slow corners, the circuit has the highest lateral energy demand of all the circuits where the supersoft is used, so tyre management is going to be imperative.

There is a significant difference in lap time expected between the two tyre compounds, as was the case in Singapore, which should help create interesting race strategies.

12 months ago only three drivers stopped once or three times, with the majority selecting a two-stop strategy. The top 10 qualifiers started on the supersoft tyre, while Jean-Eric Vergne moved from 16th on the grid to finish eighth.

Bad weather could be an issue

Formula one bettors should be aware of the possibility of bad weather for qualifying and the race. F1 organisers are monitoring a Tropical Storm that is passing through parts of Asia ahead of this weekend’s Korean Grand Prix.

While it may not hit South Korea, the storm could still cause heavy rain and strong winds, which will impact the race.

The first Korean GP in 2010 was disrupted by heavy storms, resulting in the race being suspended for over an hour – the affect it had on the race can been by the 0.26 correlation between qualifying and race performance.

Track Correlation unreliable due to sufficient of historical data

Previously, we’ve proved that there is a solid correlation between qualifying position and final race positions throughout the 2012 season (click to read here).

By using the same statistical model, we examined all three Korean Grand Prix to indicate how much influence Formula One bettors can place on the relevance of qualifying at the Yeongam circuit as a race performance indicator.

The data shows a 0.56 correlation between qualifying and race position.  In addition to the strong relationship the data highlights two of the three races correlate, showcasing that qualifying at the Korean GP provides a reasonable predictor of a drivers’ race performance.

However, it is important to note that the data for the Korean Grand Prix represents a very small sample size. In a race/sport that can be influenced by a number of varied and complex outliers, a bettor should be wary of placing high confidence in such data.

Interestingly in the three previous Grand Prix the driver in pole position has never won – 2010 (2nd), 2011 (2nd) 2012 (17th).

Click here for the latest Korean Grand Prix odds.

*Odds subject to change

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