How the number of maps affects teams’ chances in eSports

How the number of maps affects teams’ chances in eSports

By Montse Garcia Oct 3, 2013

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Understanding the likelihood of a game or match winner in eSports isn’t that difficult to assess. However what happens when the number of games in a series changes? Is it more or less likely for a pre-series favourite to win?

Favourites are vulnerable in shorter eSports series

1, 2, 3, 5 and 7 map series are common in eSports. The fewer games played in a series gives the underdog a bigger chance of upsetting the odds, while the more games played remove the likelihood of variance and gives the favourite a bigger advantage.

With fewer games the underdogs can employ unique strategies to surprise their opponents such as a strong all-in for Starcraft or a tricky level 1 invade in League of Legends. But preparing four different and equally successful strategies is harder to achieve, and on average, the better team/player are more likely prevail, as they adapt to their adversary over a longer series.

Bettors should be aware that there is possible value in betting against the favourite in single games, as the odds can be perceived as the same as a best of 3 or 5 game series. There is a tendency to underestimate what can go wrong during a single map, and despite the favourite being more likely to win a series, in a single map there is a greater chance of variance from luck, mistakes and unique strategies, which can upset the odds.

How do previous games influence the next?

Now lets look into individual maps in a best of x series. In the opening game of a match, we can intuitively expect the same odds given to a best of 1, but what about the following maps.

When it comes to Starcraft 2, it’s important to mention we’re ignoring the effect the chosen map has on the match-up, so lets focus on the end line after this adjustment. Do the chances of a team/player change drastically after the first game of the series has been played?

In general, the chances shouldn’t be that different, but lets look a bit deeper into the specific factors that give bettors a tendency to alter the odds from the outcome of the opening map. For example, lets say there was a huge upset and the underdog took the first game. The bettor should analyse the key factors that led to the result.

If you believe it was a special cheese, an early snowball, or a bit of luck, you shouldn’t put too much weight on that result when thinking of the next game. But what if it was just an old-fashioned outplaying, with the underdog looking stronger than the alleged favourite? Well, maybe the bettor misjudged the chances at the beginning and the bookmaker was purely overvaluing one of the sides. In that case, it would be good to reassess the chances of both parties.

It’s not just in eSports where we see this occur. The effect of the longer best-of-five set matches, played in Grand Slam tennis matches, versus traditional best-of-three set matches is obvious when the outcome of a set is reduced to a simple win percentage for each player. (Read more here)

Casters love talking about “momentum“. If player A is two maps behind in a best of five, certainly their chances of taking the series have decreased drastically before any game was played, but according to the casters, so do their chances of winning the following map.

While it might not always be the case and some experienced teams and players have the mental strength to block such circumstances, there can be cases when the momentum kicks in to tilt the party that is playing catch-up. If you notice a player/team making uncharacteristic mistakes or being caught in questionable situations for example, one might guess that the previous result has affected them.

We simply can’t make an absolute rule about the variation in one team/player’s chances throughout the series. It’s something that has to be judged in a case-by-case basis, while starting from the supposition that the variation should be minimal to non-existent unless there’s special conditions that we believe grant the change.

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