Can Johnson defend Flyweight title?

Can Johnson defend Flyweight title?

By Michael Gales Jul 17, 2013

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UFC on Fox 8 comes from the Key Arena in Seattle Washington on July 27th. The main event sees Demetrious Johnson defend his flyweight title against John Moraga. Johnson is the huge favourite at Pinnacle Sports, but can Moraga use his grappling advantage to cause an upset?

Johnson heavy favourite to defend title

Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson 1.239* is the heavy favourite to defend his flyweight title against challenger John Moraga 4.600* at UFC on Fox 8 on July 27th.

‘Mighty Mouse’ has a 17-2-1 MMA record compared to Moraga who holds a 13-1 record. Moraga’s streak includes a seven-fight winning streak, and though he has won both of his MMA championship fights in the past, neither have were in the UFC code.

The pair were scheduled to fight earlier in April at The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale, but Johnson was forced out through injury. With only three months since the injury, will Johnson have recuperated in time?

Johnson has won three fights in succession after drawing with Ian McCall at UFC on FX and will look to defend his title for a second time.

During his last fight the champion overcame being dropped twice by Dodson and gradually took control of the fight winning a unanimous decision.

Moraga inflicted a fourth career defeat onto Chris Cariaso via submission the last time he ventured into the octagon at UFC 155 in December 2012, and his only defeat came against Dodson back in December 2010.

Moraga will look to use size advantage

Moraga is a big underdog for the fight despite his excellent MMA record to date and holding a height and reach advantage over the champion.

Both orthodox pugilists will enter the octagon around the 125lbs weight limit, but the challenger is 3 inches taller (5 6) and has a one-inch reach advantage (67).

How Morago uses his physical advantage to combat the speed of Johnson could be key to him upsetting the odds and claiming the UFC flyweight title.

Neither fighter has suffered a KO loss

With just three defeats between the two fighters, neither man has suffered defeat by KO or submission.

Stylistically, Johnson has an approach similar to Frankie Edgar. He is fast, can strike, get out, and snag takedowns when necessary.

Johnson has improved his striking in recent times and lands on average 3.39 strikes per minute. The champion isn’t renowned for his KO power (17% of wins by KO) but uses his striking ability to set up takedowns.

Moraga has decent stand up ability and throws on average 4 strikes per minute but could find it tough to get through the excellent defence of Johnson who avoids 66% of opponent’s strikes.

Battle of the mat key

Moraga’s specialises in wrestling and submissions. The challenger has a 100% takedown accuracy and averages 2.01 takedowns every 15 minutes, while the champion has a 61% grappling defence and is notoriously difficult to takedown.

Johnson & Moraga Fight Statistics

Striking

Johnson

Moraga

Strikes landed per/min

3.39

4.01

Striking accuracy

50%

44%

Strikes absorbed per/min

1.97

3.68

Defense

66%

67%

Grappling

Johnson

Moraga

Takedown average/15min

3.21

2.01

Takedown accuracy

49%

100%

Takedown defence

61%

86%

Submission average/15min

0.08

1

Johnson has showcased his wrestling ability both offensively and defensively since he joined the UFC. ‘Mighty Mouse’ averages 3.21 takedowns every 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 49%. However he will need to improve the accuracy as Moraga repels 86% of his opponent’s grapples.

Johnson is more effective on his feet, but if the fight does hit the ground he can hold his own. He has been involved in some quality grappling exchanges against the elite flyweights and bantamweights over recent years and has six submission victories (35% of his victories) to his name.

Moraga is a submission specialist and has won 46% of his fights by making his opponent tap out and averages one submission attempt every three rounds.

Experience & fitness could prove vital in later rounds

Five rounds are scheduled so experience and fitness could decide the outcome of this fight.

Despite being three-years younger than the challenger, 26-year-old Johnson has experience fighting past the third round on four occasions, compared to Moraga who has never been involved in the championship rounds.

Johnson also has tremendous cardio, which allows him to fight at a ferocious pace for the distance of the bout. The champion has won 47% of fights on the judge’s scorecard, while Moraga has claimed five wins at the final bell but is untested in the championship rounds.

It is worth noting that Moraga has finished 71% of his last seven fights and both of his UFC fights, which explains why his average fight time (07:29) is more than ten minutes less than Johnson’s.

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*Odds subject to change