среда, 8 мая 2013 г.

Sky Dogs: Arthur can take the right step to Victory

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"Welton Arthur will be far more at home over this trip than he has been during the four bend qualifying rounds and given his excellent record over the course and distance rates the most likely winner"

Welton Arthur, back over his favourite six bend trip, can further enhance an already excellent course and distance record by taking the 'Three Steps to Victory' final - live on Sky Sports - tonight says Darrell Williams, who also previews the full supporting TV card.

Three Steps

T1 Jazz Tilly
Very consistent bitch, who is rarely out of the first three and one of only two finalists with 600m form. Runner-up in a Monmore 630m contest in March (arguably has her best form there). Three from five record in trap one. Solid performer who can run both on and off the pace.

T2 Romeo Recruit
Unbeaten in four races over four bends here (even mix of 480/500m) including an easy win in a competition here in December. Unbeaten in the Produce (also runner-up in the Swindon version) last year. Untried beyond 500m but breeding suggest should handle the trip.

T3 Welton Arthur
Course and distance specialist who should come into his own back up in trip. Lightly raced this year (two wins from five) but runner-up in the Yorkshire Leger last season. Can sometimes have his own ideas but the most likely winner.

T4 Hather George
Has won his last five races here over 480/500m but another untried beyond that trip. Eclipse finalist last year (got no run) and in red hot form with ten victories in his last twelve outings. 

T5 Castlelyons Cofi
Twice behind Romeo Recruit in the preliminaries and also yet to race beyond 500m. Finalist in the Harolds Cross Puppy Derby last year. Best form recently has been at Coventry. Trap five draw means he will need to do everything right

T6 Bubbly Jaytee
Dual S1 winner over 575m at Romford recently but has won only one of his last twenty Opens and a fair bit to find on his form in the two qualifying rounds for this. 

Verdict
Welton Arthur will be far more at home over this trip than he has been during the four bend qualifying rounds and given his excellent record over the course and distance rates the most likely winner, albeit that he has been priced up accordingly. If he stays, and the general view appears that he will, Romeo Recruit, boosted by an unbeaten record over four bends at this track, would be an obvious threat, but it remains an 'if'. Therefore, Jazz Tilly, a solid performer over six bends elsewhere, and with a favourable draw, might be a better value alternative.

19:34 Puppy
Teddy The Legend, a littermate of Golden Wonder and Young Golden, looks a cut above these and rates the night's best bet. A draw outside railer Swift Ulster can only add to his claims. Droopys Odell, a bang railer, was runner-up in a messy Gymcrack final and is best of the rest.

19:49 Hurdles
Soviet Military has been in good form but hasn't been round here and can be taken on with Green Amigo, was an A1 performer here previously and could hardly have posted a better trial. 

20:04 Stayers
Plenty of possibilities here including Granard Bound, who looks over-priced, but hasn't won too many recently. Hather Sherlock has been in good form but has a tricky draw to cheat, so Swabys Princess, who likes it here, gets the slimmest of votes.

20:19 480m
Bucks Blade hasn't run since last July but was a Derby quarter-finalist and has a three from record over CD. His trials suggest he can bounce straight back. Longwood Fantasy has obvious claims but Phanters Capri is a more price friendly alternative.

20:34 Marathon
Not an easy one to solve although Bubbly Capel, open to more improvement on her third race back after a long absence, gets the nod. Aero Rebel can be vulnerable at tracks unfamiliar to her but has oodles of class.

20:49 Sprint
The race of the night by some way but hard to oppose Golden Sprint winner Farloe Barracuda who has an excellent record over this CD. If there is to be a surprise, well drawn Demesne Tornado, who has beaten the selection here before, is far too big in the betting.

21:04 500m
Many Are Called will be popular especially after brother Farloe Warhawk's clock breaking win the other night, but Pats Legacy likes it here (four wins in his last five over CD) and offers a shade more value.

Recommended Bets
Teddy The Legend 19:34
Farloe Barracuda 20:49
Bucks Blade 20:19
Welton Arthur 21:19
Green Amigo 19:49

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