IPL Betting: Kings XI Punjab vs Delhi Daredevils

David Miller's six-hitting has been the highlight of Punjab's campaign

Nothing less than a win will do as far as Kings XI Punjab's bid to make the play-offs is concerned. Fortunately for Adam Gilchrist's men, the opposition is only struggling Delhi so Paul Krishnamurty is backing the favourites to deliver...  

Kings XI Punjab vs Delhi Daredevils
Start Time: BST (15:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com

Kings XI Punjab

Every time we write Punjab off, they fight back as Bangalore have twice found to their cost in the past few days. After being matched at 890.0889/1 to win the tournament, Adam Gilchrist's men are back in the hunt and merely double figure odds. They still need a minor miracle, involving winning their two remaining matches and results in another three going their way, just to make the play-offs. Nevertheless, stranger things have happened, Kings XI are on a roll and must be rated strong favourites for today's match. Most encouragingly, Gilchrist has at last found some form, taking some pressure off their key men Shaun Marsh and David Miller.

Delhi Daredevils

In stark contrast to today's less fashionable opponents, Delhi have nothing to play for besides a humiliating struggle to avoid finishing bottom and in some players' cases, a last-ditch attempt to save their contracts. Their demise has been the surprise story of this year's IPL and big changes must be expected after the post-mortem. The principal problem has been batting, with Tuesday's 135 the latest in a series of poor totals. Nobody besides David Warner has taken responsibility for the middle-order in the absence of Kevin Pietersen, and this core weakness will make it hard to register a competitive total at this generous ground.

First Innings Runs

We've become used to big totals at Mohali, but the last match there saw a change of conditions. The pitch had already been used and was notably slower, producing scores of 150 and 120. Given that both of these sides have been prone to being bowled out cheaply, I'll be laying 140 plus at around 1.351/3.

Match odds

If both sides had something to play for, the betting would be much tighter and taking odds of just 1.75/7 involves the dubious assumption that Punjab's extra incentive will make the difference. That doesn't appeal much but then nor does this atrocious Delhi batting line-up. Teams generally need the middle-order to contribute significantly in order to win on this ground, so supremacy on that score makes Punjab a tentative selection. 

Top Punjab batsman

Now David Miller hasn't top-scored for a couple of matches, this emerging superstar is reasonable value again at around 5.59/2. He's won this market four times in ten appearances and is bound to be at the crease during the second part of the innings, when runs tend to flow fast here.

Top Delhi batsman

The only Delhi batsman to have consistently performed is David Warner and he is a fair price even at just 4.03/1. Given Delhi's habit of collapsing, however, I prefer to look for bigger prices further down their order. Irfan Pathan nearly landed a touch for us when finishing a close second in this market away to Sunrisers, and the all-rounder remains decent value at around 17.016/1.

Recommended bet

Back Kings XI Punjab @ 1.75/7