пятница, 24 мая 2013 г.

In-Running Week: Life And Soul to pay for the party

Donald McCain's Life And Soul is an interesting prospect

Neil Munro highlights the horses which have caught his eye from a trading in-running perspective...

So the domestic football season is over and anyone who is anyone has retired, which turned my mind to taking my foot off the pedal and spending a bit more time doing nothing. I was then informed by my better half that, in fact, that is exactly what I have been doing for the last few years, so it is back to working hard again.

I had the pleasure last weekend of going to the Lockinge meeting for the second year running and despite it being mainly a social occasion I still had a few horses that were on my mind. One of those was Remote in the opening ten furlong maiden. I had noted on debut that he looked big and may have needed the run but had travelled well for a long way. 

Unfortunately because the better half had gone to get her nails done in the morning we were still on the train when the race was run. Because of this I only had a small stake on, which I traded out at quarter the BSP, rather than my normal stake. I have since watched the race and he again travelled well and should be a useful tool for the future to trade on but has not quite made it on the database yet.

Horses on the Database:

Ribbons - James Fanshawe's three-year-old filly was only having her second start at Goodwood recently but I thought it was a very likeable performance off a mark of 75. From what the trainer said afterwards, and bearing in mind this was only her second career start, she may need to do some more growing into her frame and thus she will not be heavily campaigned this season. But I will certainly be keeping an eye on her as Ribbons has shown a really likeable attitude on both occasions.

At Kempton she was on the pace, looked like she was going to be passed by some of the hold-up performers, but picked up and then went away from the field. At Goodwood she had to battle to come through a gap and then used her acceleration to take her away from the field. To my eye, there was no idling in front which is good to see. On both her wins she has traded four times the BSP as in-running layers have underestimated what she is going to find. And find she does. There must be a lot of pressure associated with training an Elite Racing Club horse, as one of the more renowned mass ownership schemes, but they have a really exciting filly.

Back Ribbons on her next three starts at 2x and 4x her BSP in the run.

Eastern Destiny - Richard Fahey's four-year-old daughter of Dubai Destination will be a consistent contender over ten furlong in handicaps this summer and proved it with her recent run at York. At times Eastern Destiny gets worked on four or five furlongs out but then she does keep finding and seems very willing to battle all the way to the line. If you look at her in-running CV she has tasted victory four times and traded two times her BSP in the run on three of those occasions. During one of those successes she traded 350 in the run despite going off only 7.45 BSP. And to show that she is nearly always in the mix, she has traded half her BSP in all bar two runs in her career to date.

Back Easter Destiny pre-race for half your stake pre-race at BSP and then offer the half in the run at double BSP. Maybe also put a small offer up at around 100. Then lay out your combined stake at around half the matched price with further lower offers to green up your position.

Life and Soul - To be the life and soul of a party you sometimes have to be a little bit quirky and I think Donald McCain's six year old fits into that bracket. Over hurdles connections have always run him at the front, or close to it, but he proved on the flat that he was versatile in tactics. However, he does have a number of characteristics which means he is unpredictable at times. He has hung in a finish, has looked beaten at times, and not put it all in a finish. But then again he does at times find more than expected and comes back at opponents so he truly is an enigma. This has led Life And Soul to trade double his BSP in the run for all five victories. He seems to perform better on good ground so we may see more of him over the summer jumps campaign.

Something for the weekend

The five furlong Group Two Temple Stakes takes place at Haydock this weekend and will be over quicker than me eating a doughnut... Ok it take around a minute so slightly longer, but you get the idea. 

There will be lots of pace on here but the really interesting pace angle is Reckless Abandon who begins the historically tough season that three-year-old sprinters tend to have. He does show lots of pace, and bearing in mind it is his seasonal reappearance I will be tempted to use a back-to-lay trade on him.

The favourite is Sole Power who we know will have been targeted at this race having finished second and first the last two years. The previously mentioned pace in the race will be perfect for this hold up performer who likes to be delivered late. Because of this I think it is always worth backing him pre-race and then putting up a deep odds-on lay to green your position up in case he doesn't quite get there. Remember, he does have a 1.01 in-running defeat to his name!

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