In-Running Week: Guineas In-Play advice

Neil expects Toronado to trade short

Neil Munro returns with the latest instalment of in-running week, offering you his suggested in-running plays for the Guineas...

We all have certain conditions under which we perform our best. For the telephone betting team of Betfair it is the week of the Cheltenham Festival when everyone loves the buzz, each individual has an opinion on the likely winners and, despite being busy, the team is enjoying the job. For me it is when the day starts with a really strong black coffee, I walk in the office and some of the real characters of the team are in, and we have a few events on which are going to generate high call volumes. For George Best it was probably playing on a dream surface the day after entertaining one of the Miss Worlds and enjoying far too much champagne. Where did it all go wrong George?!

And horses are very much the same. That is why we see a lot of repeat performance under the same conditions. It might be a course that triggers the performance, a time of year, the makeup of a race, the jockey...you get the idea. These are the stats that form the basis for a lot of punters betting, but why not for trading?

As the horses selected below indicate, there is absolutely no reason why it doesn't work for trading.

Horses on the Database:

Doyly Carte - We might not see Doyly Carte until next season, so she might be one for the notebook (does anyone actually still make notes of horses in a little black book anymore?) but she definitely likes good ground and struggles when it is soft or heavy. Her stats back this up with four wins from five runs on good to soft (her only defeat came in the Aintree Listed bumper) as opposed to soft or heavy ground where her record is a second and two thirds in three runs. What I like about Doyly Carte is that she doesn't just stop in ground she doesn't like, but still puts a full shift in. She has the scope to go chasing so she could be interesting next season for trading.

Back Doyly Carte pre-race at BSP. On good to soft or firmer ground lay out your stake only at the matched price. On soft or heavy going lay out slightly more than half your stake and then put up further offers including odds-on to have the field in a winning position.

Kashmiri Star - Mick Quinn's four year old covers two angles I love to find in horses to trade on. Firstly she seems to struggle to get home over seven furlongs or a mile with her only win coming over six. So the conditions for me to play on her are when connections try to stretch her stamina over seven or eight furlongs. Her in-running CV indicated that she has traded half her BSP on six of her eight runs, and gone on to trade 1.11 and 1.40 in defeat. The second angle is making money out of horses who do not win that often. I have already indicated that Kashmiri Star struggles to get a certain trip but overall her win ratio is 7%.

Back Kashmiri Star over seven or eight furlongs at BSP pre-race. The lay out double your stake at BSP in the run to have the field winning. Then put up a couple of lay offers at under 1.50. Alternatively (but with bigger risk) just lay in the run.

Something for the weekend:

2000 Guineas

I am still of the belief that Toronado could steal this race from the front by injecting some pace as they hit the dip and connections believe that he has gears so he could go again if challenged. I will be backing him pre-race at BSP and then putting up an offer around 1.6 with a couple of further lower lays. Dawn Approach has hit a couple of flat spots in his races and has trades at double the BSP in two of his six runs. Because of his price I am going to lay him pre-race and try and cover my liability at just over double BSP in the run. My last play will be Garswood who travels well and will go off a working man's price so you can use back-to-lay tactics.

1000 Guineas

I only have one play on the fillies version at the moment. Sky Lantern is a strong traveller and her price should contract so I will be backing her pre-race and trying to trade out in the run, initially for my stake at BSP, but with further offers at lower odds. If I have any further thoughts nearer the race I will put them up on my twitter feed @neilmunr.

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