Heineken Cup: Jonny Wilkinson can kick Toulon to final glory over Clermont Auvergne

Jonny Wilkinson could prove the difference in this weekend's Heineken Cup final

Simon Mail looks at the two European finals this weekend and thinks Jonny Wilkinson could fire Toulon to Heineken Cup victory over favourites Clermont Auvergne...

Clermont Auvergne v Toulon
Kick-off: Saturday 17.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports 1

Clermont Auvergne will be attempting to become the first team in the competition's history to win all nine games after a superbly consistent campaign. The French side have been knocking on the door for a number of years but have finally reached their first final. Vern Cotter's side have won plenty of admirers this season with their attacking brand of rugby which has swept away the opposition. Clermont finished first in the Top 14 and their European form, which included home and away wins over holders Leinster, has been superb.

Toulon have also established a world-class side which has been spearheaded by former England fly-half Jonny Wilkinson. His form with the boot has been instrumental in the run to their maiden final. Wilkinson barely missed a kick in Toulon's semi-final triumph at Twickenham against Saracens. Bernard Laporte's team led the Top 14 for much of the season before being overtaken by Clermont but there is no doubt these are two evenly matched outfits.

The fine margins between the sides is demonstrated by their two meetings this season. The rivals shared a 26-26 draw only last month while Clermont edged their home game 24-21 in November.

Clermont start the final as favourites but if conditions are bad in Dublin then this could well play into the hands of Wilkinson's side. The former Newcastle star kicked all their points against Saracens and if Clermont lack discipline he will punish them. Toulon look a decent price at 2.77/4 but it could be a safer bet to go with them to win in the handicap market. 

Recommended Bet

Back Toulon to win +3.5 points at 21/1

Leinster v Stade Francais
Kick-off: Friday 20.00
Live on Sky Sports 2

Leinster are the overwhelming odds on favourites to win the Amlin Challenge Cup in front of their own fans at the RDS. The Irish giants have been one of the most dominant sides in Europe in recent years with three Heineken Cup titles in the last four seasons. This experience of winning at the highest level is certain to prove valuable in their first final in this competition. 

Stade Francais have endured a difficult season in the Top 14 where they finished in 11th place. This means the underachievers have to win the final to qualify for next year's Heineken Cup. Stade Francais proved they are capable of winning away from home in the competition, after victories at Bath and Perpignan in the knockout stages, but they will have to rise to a whole new level in Dublin.

It would take a bold punter to predict an upset here with Leinster backed by their home supporters. Joe Schmidt will take over Ireland at the end of the season and will be determined to bow out with the club's fourth European title in five years. Stade Francais played in the final two years ago when they were pipped 19-18 by Harlequins. It could be another similarly tight contest, with so much at stake, so the best bet could be to go for a narrow Leinster win. 

Recommended bet

Back Leinster to win by less than 12.5 points at 2.0421/20

Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster