Handicappers' Corner: The Secret's Out

Secret Gesture's trainer, Ralph Beckett, won the Oaks with Look Here

There was classic action abroad, but the racing in Britain last week was all about trials. David Johnson looks at what the major races from Chester and Lingfield mean with a view to Epsom in three weeks' time...

Late rain on Saturday meant that Lingfield's classic trials weren't as informative as they promised to be, short-priced favourite Greatwood a late absentee from the Derby Trial with the going quickly turning testing, but before then, Secret Gesture rightfully put herself towards the head of the Oaks betting when taking her trial in effortless fashion.

Secret Gesture looked a potential Oaks candidate when breaking her maiden at Newbury last year, and she strengthened those claims with a 10-length success from her main rival on form, Miss You Too.

There's no doubting that this listed race lacked depth, and the winner's task was made easier by the fact that Miss You Too took a fierce hold up in trip, but even so, it's hard to believe that Secret Gesture isn't a smart filly. Race standards suggest a range of 106-112 for the winning performance, and Secret Gesture's new Timeform rating is 112p, currently top-rated of those likely to run in the Oaks. Moth who disputes favouritism with her is currently 111p.

In terms of what kind of performance is required to win a typical Oaks, over the last five years, the average rating for the winner is 119, second is 117 and third is 113.

Greatwood's absence meant Nevis was left with little to beat in the Derby Trial, and with the maiden Elidor in second, a rating much lower than what is suggested by race standards has been taken, and he earned a figure of 109p.

O'Brien has dominated the Derby trials this week with victories in the Dee Stakes and Vase at Chester as well as taking Ireland's premier trial, the Derrinstown with Battle of Marengo. Battle of Marengo was again no more than workmanlike in recording a fifth consecutive win, and he increased his rating from 118p to 121p, for defeating last year's Criterium International winner, Loch Garman by a length and three quarters, and he is currently the highest-rated of Aidan O'Brien's 31 entries at present.

More impressive visually were the two Chester winners, Ruler Of The World and Magician who won the Vase and Dee Stakes respectively. Ruler Of The World was rated 117p for his victory and Magician 118p, both horses rated in line with historical standards for their respective races, and Magician's effort is arguably the more solid having produced a 116 timefigure as well.

Looking ahead to Epsom, the average rating recorded by the winner in the last five seasons has been 127, the runner-up 122 and the third 120, so all of the O'Brien team still have improvement to find to win an average renewal. Current top-rated and short-priced favourite Dawn Approach is rated 132.

Elsewhere this week, Longchamp hosted the Poule d'Essai des Poulains and Pouliches. The Poulains is reportedly under threat of being downgraded by the European Pattern Race Committee, and it produced what has become a typical bunched finish, with a number of horses not seen to best effect.

Chief sufferer on this occasion was Intello, who was unlucky not to remain unbeaten, finishing strongly out wide from a poor draw, and with a rating of 117p, he has been rated as finishing ahead of the first two, Style Vendome (116) and Dastarhon (115).

Of the Richard Hannon-trained pair of Havana Gold and Olympic Glory, the former did best, improving to 115+, and not seen to best effect either, his effort petering out after coming from a long way back whilst Olympic Glory wasn't persevered with having been caught out wide.

The Pouliches looks a much more solid race, won in race-record time with the first two pulling four lengths clear of the rest. Flotilla was the form pick based on her Breeders' Cup success but still showed further improvement to earn a rating of 120. 

There was plenty to like about the effort of Esoterique in second too. Supplemented for the race after winning her two previous starts, she showed plenty of improvement to earn a figure of 119p. This form is rated some way superior to that shown by Sky Lantern (114) in the 1000 Guineas, and Flotilla would be the one to beat if she took up her entry in the Coronation Stakes.          

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