Handicappers' Corner: Dawn Of A New Era for Godolphin?

Dawn Approach was a wide-margin winner of the 2000 Guineas

Flat racing has been blessed by some outstanding performers over the few seasons, is Dawn Approach the next? David Johnson explores that idea in his ratings round-up... 

Initially billed as a match, the final stages of the 2000 Guineas proved anything but as Dawn Approach powered away to record a top-class effort and run out a wide-margin winner of the first British classic of the season.

Timeform have awarded Dawn Approach a figure of 132, which puts him among some of the biggest names in the recent history of the event, his performance bettered only by Frankel, Dancing Brave and El Gran Senor since the days of Nijinsky and Brigadier Gerard.

A figure of 132 is a straightforward enough figure to arrive at, without the need for a yardstick or a horse to rate the race around either. Coincidentally, not a single horse in the 2000 Guineas has been adjudged to have run to his pre-race master rating. 

Historical standards suggest a range of 129-135 for Dawn Approach whilst pre-race rating standardisation also supports a rating in the low 130s.
Of those still in training, only Cirrus des Aigles is rated higher and Dawn Approach has the potential to carry all before him this season.

The question is stamina, or a potential lack of it, rather than form as Dawn Approach steps up in trip to a mile and half for the Derby. The level of form shown already is above that required to win an average Derby. Only Workforce has run to higher when winning at Epsom (133 in 2010) since Generous ran to 135 in 1991. 

Although there is plenty of speed on the dam's side of his pedigree, his relaxed, tractable demeanour means that Timeform are of the opinion that Dawn Approach is likely to stay a mile and a half. 

One horse that it seems is unlikely to turn up for a rematch is the beaten second-favourite Toronado who finished weakly after looking second best for much of the race. He was reported to have been found to be coughing after, and bearing in mind the promise of his run in the Craven, there are bound to be other opportunities for him at Group 1 level. Although he loses the 'p' symbol, his rating is unchanged on 124.

Though most of the beaten horses in the 2000 Guineas ran below form, one of the obvious exceptions was 150/1 runner-up Glory Awaits who produced a big career best. Having shown a tendency to race lazily in the past, blinkers evidently sharpened him up, increasing his rating by 21 lb from 97 to 118.

The field finished far more bunched for the fillies' version the following day, and the likelihood is that it is an ordinary renewal, Sky Lantern not needing to step up on her Nell Gwyn second where she had a penalty, again running to 114. 

Rather like the 2000, the 1000 Guineas is straightforward to assess, historical and prior-rating standards firmly suggesting a rating in the low to mid 110s. Such a view sees the next three home all post improved efforts, Just The Judge up to 113, Moth 111p and Winning Express 109.

With a view to the Oaks, it didn't go unnoticed that Moth ran an excellent trial, and she'll relish the step up to a mile and half.

Hot Snap was the one that proved very disappointing. Her form in the Nell Gwyn, which is backed up by the time, certainly stood up through the performances of the winner and fourth, but she was in nothing like the same form herself just 18 days on and on quicker ground. She remains rated as the best in the field on 118. 

The best performance away from the classics at Newmarket was that put up by Sole Power in winning the Palace House Stakes. A strongly-run 5f on good or firmer are probably his optimum conditions and he showed he's just about as good as ever in running to 122 to beat Kingsgate Native by a length. 

The Dahlia Stakes looks likely to prove informative with a view to some of the better fillies' only races later in the season. Lightly-raced 4-y-os Dank (117) and Chigun (114) both showed further improvement to pull clear Thistle Bird. The last-named not at her best after taking a keen hold close up.

The highest rating awarded on the second day of the Guineas meeting actually went to Hamza for making all in the 6f handicap. Defying a mark of 101 he earns a new Timeform rating of 118 which suggests he's minor pattern standard now.

Elsewhere, it's worth mentioning that Andre Fabre's Ocovango maintained his unbeaten record in the Prix Greffulhe. He holds a Derby entry, and it's the same trial that Pour Moi won prior to his Epsom success, but with a rating of just 111p, he still has plenty to find. 

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