суббота, 25 мая 2013 г.

England v New Zealand Statistics: All a-Broad the Headingley express

Broad has a great record at Headingley and arrives in Leeds high in confidence.

Following a crushing victory for England in the first Test, Jaymes Monte analyses the statistics ahead of the series finale...

Recent Headingley form not encouraging for hosts...
In a run that stretches back to May 2007 England have not won any of their last three Test matches at Headingley. Although the most recent drawn Test against South Africa was fairly evenly matched, England were comprehensively beaten by South Africa (10 wickets) and Australia (innings and 80 runs) previously.

There is, however, encouragement to draw from England's nine-wicket victory the last time that they met New Zealand here, back in June 2004.

At odds of 1.684/6 England are suitably short, but on a ground where they don't have the greatest of recent records it would take a brave man to back at such prohibitive odds.

Let us not forget that the first Test was evenly poised heading into the fourth innings at Lord's last week, and we should not bank on a similar collapse from the tourists this time around.

Recommended Bet: Lay England to win @ 1.684/6

Broad to pick up where he left off last week...
Of the top 50 all-time Test match wicket takers at Headingley, only Stuart Broad will be involved this week. In three matches and just five innings at the Leeds ground Broad has taken a total of 15 wickets at an average of 25.20. No other player in either the England or New Zealand squad features in the top 50 for wickets taken here.

The England seamer took eight wickets, including a five-fer, in England's drawn Test with South Africa last summer. Prior to that he was a solitary beacon of light when taking six wickets in an innings defeat to Australia back in 2009.

With both players taking seven wickets in the first Test Broad and James Anderson are each available to back at 2.01/1 to be England's top series wicket taker, but it is Broad's record at Headingley that makes him the standout bet.

Recommended Bet: Back Broad @ 2.01/1 in England Top Series Wicket Taker

Root to continue meteoric rise...
Much like the bowlers the current crop of batsmen are extremely poorly represented in the list of all-time run scorers at Headingley. Kevin Pieteresen does have a good record here and would be a standout bet if fit, but in his absence Alastair Cook is the only current batsman to feature in the list of top 50 run scorers at Headingley.

Even then the England captain's numbers are mediocre at best, having scored 294 runs in nine innings at an average of just 32.66. Never once managing to reach triple figures and making just one half century.

However, Joe Root scored the first double century by a Yorkshire batsman at Headingley since 2007 when playing against Derbyshire in his only Headingley appearance this season.

And after amassing 111 runs, and being shifted up the order in the second innings, as England's top scorer in the first Test, Root looks an outstanding bet at odds of 6.05/1 to be England's top first innings run scorer, and 5.04/1 to be the hosts' top scoring batsman of the series.

Recommended Bet: Back Root @ 5.04/1 in England Top Series Batsman

First innings totals crucial to determining match result...
In seven of the last 10, and all of the last five, Headingley Test matches the first innings lead, or lack thereof, has been intrinsically linked to the overall result.

Last summer there was just six runs difference between England and South Africa's first innings totals, and the match ended in a draw. Prior to that Pakistan took a commanding first innings lead against Australia and won the match, Australia and South Africa posted first innings totals more than 300 runs greater than England and won their respective matches and England were well on top of West Indies after the first innings before recording a facile victory in 2007.

The average first innings score over the past 10 Test matches (20 innings) is 373.6, with no discernible difference between the team batting first and the team batting second.

Whoever you fancy to win the match, it makes sense to back them in the First Innings Lead market instead, thus effectively removing the draw from the equation. England are 1.364/11 for a first innings lead and New Zealand 3.412/5, compared to odds of 1.162/13 and 6.05/1, respectively, in the Draw No Bet market.

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