Ligue 1 Betting: Lyon's Euro blues set to see them lose ground in the title race

Remi Garde's side celebrate their 4-0 win at Bordeaux last weekend but are unlikely to enjoy a repeat triumph

On a sensational run of 27 winners from 39 recommendations James Eastham picks out the smartest selections on this weekend's French fixtures...

Troyes v Bastia (19th v 15th) Sat, 19:00 GMT

Some Ligue 1 relegation battles send you to sleep but this shouldn't be one of them.

Troyes have enjoyed a revival of late, picking up six points from their last four matches after seeming dead and buried in the first-half of the season. The impressive quality of their attacking football has been all the more impressive because they sold star playmaker Mounir Obbadi to Monaco during the January transfer window.

Defensively, however, they are regularly found out - for example, last weekend Toulouse claimed a 2-2 draw against them by scoring twice in the final five minutes. Bastia are capable of exploiting that while also succumbing to Troyes' attacking quality - 19 of the Corsicans' 25 fixtures have had over 2.5 goals..

Over 2.5 Goals and Both teams to Score are both worth considering.

Valenciennes v Toulouse (11th v 12th) Sat, 19:00 GMT

Few, if any sides, were weakened as much as Valenciennes were in the January transfer window.

The sale of Brazilian centre-half Gil, one of Ligue 1's most underrated players, and Foued Kadir, one of the division's smartest playmakers, has had a debilitating effect on morale and results. Valenciennes' results since the start of the year read W1-D1-L4.

With Valenciennes playing so poorly, I expect Toulouse to get something so would recommend them on the Asian Handicap. Toulouse's away record is W3-D3-L6 but against bottom-half opponents they're W3-D2-L0 so they're a good bet.

The low-scoring nature of Toulouse's away games is the key to the Under/Overs markets. Ten of their 12 fixtures have had under 2.5 goals, so Unders a good selection.

Lyon v Lorient (2nd v 7th) Sun, 13:00 GMT

Lyon's players looked sick after a late Tottenham equaliser dumped them out of the Europa League on Thursday night. I sense Remi Garde's squad may still be feeling low about their European exit by the time this game comes around.

Lyon have been France's primary representatives on the continental stage over the past decade so the club wanted to reach the last 16 at the very least. Already out of France's domestic cup competitions and with only a slim chance of claiming the Ligue 1 title, they may feel as though their season has come to a premature end, even though they still have a Champions League place to play for.

Lorient are capable of profiting from the morose mood in the home dressing-room. They have avoided defeat in seven of 12 away games this season, scoring at least once in 10 of those fixtures.

Consider laying Lyon at 1.768/11 or backing Lorient with an Asian Handicap start. But my strongest selection would be Both teams to Score.

Bordeaux v Brest (9th v 16th) Sun, 16:00 GMT

Bordeaux may be seven places and 13pts above Brest in the league standings but there's little to suggest they will win comfortably this weekend.

Bordeaux's home record is W4-D6-L2, with just one win by more than a single goal (2-0 v Valenciennes on February 2). They hosted Dynamo Kiev in the Europa League on Thursday night and their record in league games immediately after European outings this season is W1-D5-L3 (including W0-D2-L1 at home).

Brest lost their opening seven away games of the season, but their record on the road has improved since: over the past three months they are W2-D2-L2. Their improving away form and Bordeaux's chronic home form means there's little downside to backing Brest with an Asian Handicap start.

Recommended Bets:

Best Bet: Troyes v Bastia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1411/10
Brest +1 Asian Handicap at Bordeaux @ 2.111/10
Toulouse +0&+0.5 Asian Handicap at Valenciennes @ 1.8910/11
Valenciennes v Toulouse Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.748/11
Lyon v Lorient Both teams to Score @ 1.8810/11

James Eastham has made 52.08pts profit from 420pts staked on Ligue 1 matches and outright markets since August 2008 (12.4% ROI), including 14.7% ROI this season. You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham