Lee Dixon: Even money City are big value to beat Chelsea

Dangerman Aguero can help City to a victory over Chelsea

Should Manchester City be such a big price to beat Rafael Benitez's Chelsea on Sunday afternoon? Lee Dixon doesn't think so. Here's why...

I'm amazed that Manchester City are as long as even money to beat Chelsea and will be betting accordingly. 

Beaten just once at home this season, City still have a mathematical chance of overhauling rivals United at the top of the table and retaining their title. However unlikely that is, I think that Roberto Mancini will keep pushing his team all the way. 

And with a clutch of London teams - including Chelsea - almost within touching distance of City, the onus is on the home team to put together a strong late-season run.

I know what it's like to do that. In 1998 we were miles behind United in the league but went on a storming unbeaten streak to somehow overhaul Fergie and co., eventually landing the title with a couple of games to spare. After a few wins we had that invincible feeling about us and Mancini won't have conceded the title yet with the hope of doing something similar. I'm not saying that they're going to rein in United but they won't let their guard down in the league and will be going all out for wins in every match. 

I'm expecting a reaction from the shock of losing at Southampton last time out and I expect City to get the better of their opponents on Sunday, but I don't expect the Premier League champions to get an easy ride.

The season has not gone to plan for Chelsea but they remain competitive as demonstrated by third place in the league and still being in cup competitions both on the continent and at home. If I'd been getting the same stick as Rafa Benitez has I think I would have walked and he hasn't done himself any harm regarding future managerial opportunities. Plenty of Blues fan will baulk at that, but their team could still win two cups and finish second and that's not a bad effort by anyone's standards.

I'm expecting Chelsea to give City a run for their money, but home advantage will tell on 90 minutes. Mancini's side boast incredible firepower and I'm a huge fan of both Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez. You can't relax with either of those two on the pitch.

Chelsea are pretty nifty in attack too - Frank Lampard has scored in the last four league games - and I imagine we'll see a few goals so overs is the bet for me.
 
But my main wager is on a home win. Opta tell us that City have won this fixture for the last three seasons and even money they're a great price to make that four in a row.

Recommended Bets 
Back Manchester City to win @ evens
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5

The Tactical View: Michael Cox

"Footballers usually talk about only focusing upon their most immediate upcoming fixture, but John Terry's programme notes ahead of Thursday's game against Sparta Prague took the opposite view - he stated Chelsea's ambition to wrap up that match by half-time, to conserve energy ahead of this match against City. Going 1-0 down early on prevented that possibility, and it's impossible to ignore the fact City have had a completely free week, while Chelsea will have had less than three days to recover from the Europa League game, plus the journey up the M1 too. With this in mind, I'll follow Lee's lead in backing City who seem too big at 2.0."

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

"City have a great home record this season with just the one defeat against neighbours United. They also boast the best home defensive record in the league and have had 46% clean sheets. However, when the top seven sides have visited they have conceded in every game.

Chelsea have scored in all but one of their away games, ironically it was at bottom club QPR where they failed to find the net. In their last six league games on the road they have won four, scoring 17 goals and conceding seven.

I like Lee’s call of over 2.5 goals and I like both teams to score but the prices available are a bit short. Therefore, in an effort to gain a better price I will start my trade by backing 1-1 @ 8.4 in the correct score market and take a bit of a risk on not getting matched (in return for a better reward) by waiting 20 minutes before backing over 2.5 goals @ approx 2.2."