вторник, 26 февраля 2013 г.

Paul Nicholls: My weekend runners at Chepstow, Kempton and Fontwell

Paul gives a big chance to Rolling Aces in today's feature race

Paul Nicholls has some live chances on Racing Plus Chase day at Kempton, as well as having runners at Chepstow and Fontwell over the weekend. Read his exclusive thoughts here...

Sunday

14.40 - FontwellPoungach

There is not a lot between the front three in here on official ratings but I hope that Poungach can get back on track. The form of his defeat of Super Duty at Haydock looks very strong but he was undeniably disappointing behind Dynaste at Kempton last time, where he didn't jump well at all. We have done a lot of work with him at home since and hopefully he can show us what he is capable of today. Jumped very well on grass yesterday.

15:45 Fontwell - Brampour, Dark Lover and Prospect Wells

This race has really cut up for such a valuable prize, so I felt I had to throw three darts at the board. Brampour is rated 156 and has his easiest chance of the season, Dark Lover comes here on the back of an excellent fourth off 148 in the Betfair Hurdle a fortnight ago and Prospect Wells must have a big chance too if reproducing his Elite Hurdle form with Zarkandar at Wincanton in November.

I find it genuinely hard to choose between the three, not least because this 2m4f trip may be the making of Dark Lover and Prospect Wells. This is basically a Cheltenham prep run for Brampour and Prospect Wells and ideally they would want it to dry up, and my concern about Dark Lover is that it is coming too soon too for him, but this will be his last run of the season. Put a gun to my head and I would slightly favour Prospect Wells of my three.

Saturday

13:35 Chepstow - Pay The King
I left him in the Albert Bartlett this week, purely as a precaution. It is clearly only a very tentative entry, though it would be nice to have the option of going to Cheltenham after this race. However, he is big and backward, a lovely chaser in the making, and very much next season's horse. But he certainly goes nicely at home and looked a very promising horse when winning his bumper at Gowran in October on good ground. His future lies over fences, it will be very different conditions today and the merit of that win is hard to gauge - not that many have been out since, but the fifth has won subsequently - but we do like him.

14:05 Kempton - Irish Saint
We always thought of him as a chasing type rather than a Triumph Hurdle horse, but the manner of his Kempton win pleasantly surprised us. So we really had little option other than to step him up in class at Cheltenham last time. It is always disappointing to lose but the fact is that we were only beaten around two lengths off levels by the current Triumph Hurdle favourite Rolling Star, with the third 30 lengths away. This will tell us whether to go Cheltenham or not - or maybe wait for Aintree - but whatever happens here he really is a very promising chaser for the future. This does look a very competitive race though.

14:40 Kempton - Grandioso
It was good to see that the handicapper didn't totally over-react to his 37 length win in a 2m4f handicap at Ludlow last time. It may seem strange to say this given how far he won, but I think a 10b rise makes his life difficult enough in handicaps. Because I think that was a pretty moderate race. But he could do no more than win as he did, and hopefully he is on a steep upward curve, so I thought we may as well take our chance in this valuable Grade 2 race. I think the drying ground will be in his favour here, though this clearly is a step up in class.

15:15 Kempton - Lac Fontana
We are really testing the water with him here. This horse was pretty smart over middle distances in France, and he ran a race full of promise at Newbury a fortnight ago. He met trouble in running but showed a really pleasing attitude, and a decent level of form, to pick up on the run-in to finish second to Chatterbox, who just happened to beat a certain My Tent Of Yours previously, though I wouldn't read too much into that. But Ruby was pretty impressed with him after the race and said not to bother with a maiden hurdle. So if he wins or runs well here in this Grade 2 company, then the Triumph is still the plan. If he doesn't, then we will maybe protect his novice status, and keep him for next season. Has jumped really nicely at home since Newbury.

15:20 Chepstow - Doeslessthanme
Has not displayed the consistency of last season, but ran his best race of the campaign when fourth in a 2m5f handicap at Warwick last time, where he travelled well before tiring. Although he has shown form over that sort of trip, I think this distance suits him better on soft ground and the handicapper has helped too by dropping him 2lb. Has each way claims.

15:50 Kempton
What A Friend
Has been off with a minor leg injury since running in the Betfred Bowl last April. Has had his soft palate cauterised since then too and has been quite slow to come to hand, so I am sure that he will need this. But if he runs up to his best - and remember it was less than two years ago that he finished only a nose behind Kauto Star in finishing fourth in the Gold Cup - then he certainly has the raw talent to be competitive off a mark of 161 here, especially with Harry taking 5lb off. And the drying ground will suit, too. But the plan is to have him at his peak for Aintree, not beforehand.

Rolling Aces
He hasn't done too badly since being beaten by a certain Rocky Creek on his point debut, and we have had this race in mind for him ever since he won over 2m5f at Wincanton on Boxing Day. He beat Opening Batsman by 11 lengths day, who went on to frank the form next time and re-opposes on 9lb better terms here. The step up to 3m will be in his favour - he stayed 2m6f110yd well when winning a very competitive Newbury handicap in December, a race that has worked out very well - and I fancy him to run a big race here. Has really pleased me at home since Wincanton.

15:55 Chepstow - Landscape
Showed improved form when winning at Taunton in December, and we had to take our chances in running him the following weekend off his old mark. The race probably came too soon, but even if it hadn't then we had little chance against a blot on the handicap in Gevrey Chambertin. But he still ran well in fourth, tiring late on. I'd like to think he still has improvement in him after just five hurdling starts. He ideally wants further but everyone knows how testing Chepstow gets, and James takes off a very handy 7lb.

17:00 Kempton - Black Cow
He goes nicely at home but like all my bumper runners he will need the run and the experience, as I let the racecourse tell me about my horses in this sphere, not the gallops. And looking at the likes of Carlton Jack in here, this will probably take a fair bit of winning as well. But I hope he can give a good account of himself.

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