четверг, 28 февраля 2013 г.

India v Australia Second Test Betting: Get on the hosts

Dhoni is the flavour of the month again

Ed Hawkins has little faith that the tourists can solve their problems against spin when game two starts in Hyderabad in the early hours of Saturday

India v Australia
Start time: 04.00GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports

India
India picked three spinners to expose Australia's inexperience against spin in Chennai and it worked as they recorded a resounding eight-wicket victory inside 90 minutes of the fifth day. Ravi Ashwin, Harbhajan Singh and Ravi Jadeja were the tormentors-in-chief and we can expect more of the same in Deccan. Virat Kohli and MS Dhoni did the hard work with the willow. Billions in India are still drooling over Dhoni's double century. Not so long ago they wanted him sacked. Now he looks as though he will consolidate his position at number six.

Australia
Personnel is not the problem, it's personality. Australia need to learn a new one if they are to succeed in India, and quickly. They are ingenues at playing spin in this part of the world and only intensive brainwashing will do the trick. It was no surprise. In our preview for the first Test we highlighted this weakness and it will not be solved by Test two. There could be improvement later on in the series, though. Michael Clarke, as one would expect given his experience, was immense. Moises Henriques, one of the new breed, showed admirable qualities. But Australia need more from Shane Watson, another senior player. Watson may have to do some bowling if Australia drop a seamer and bring in Xavier Doherty, another spinner.

Innings runs
VVS Laxman, the former India batsman, described the pitch in his home town as "hard, firm and crumbling". In the previous Test played in Hyderabad, New Zealand were beaten soon after tea on the fourth day, with Ashwin and Pragyan Ojha taking 18 of the 20 wickets. That was only one of two tests played at the Rajiv Gandhi stadium. New Zealand appared in both, making 350 first up in a draw in 2010. But they were well defeated last time, being bowled out for 159 and 164. Australia, therefore, could be in trouble first up.

Match odds
When England defeated India a few weeks back, they did it with two spinners. But even if Australia remedy that by pairing Nathan Lyon and Doherty, they may not avoid enbarrassment. It is often forgotten that Indian batsmen can play average spinners - and Lyon and Doherty have more to prove to not be branded as such - in their sleep. It is half the battle. The other half is playing it in your sleep yourselves. Australia have night terrors at the moment. Of their 20 wickets to fall in Chennai, all of them fell to spin. That is extraordinary, even if the pitches are dustier at the end of the Indian season. It means Australia are unbackable. Australia are 4.707/2, India 2.186/5 and the draw is 2.962/1. That is a stonking price about the hosts.

Top India runscorer
Cheteshwar Pujara struck 159 last time out against New Zealand at this venue and although he did not make the headlines in Chennai ground form is always a good pointer. Pujara is 5.104/1. Man of the hour Dhoni is 5.004/1. Sachin Tendulkar is the 4.507/2 favourite.

Top Australia runscorer
Clarke is as skinny a favourite as there has ever been at 3.1511/5. The rests are at fives and sixes. But to be frank we may as well back Clarke for a half-century at around 2.001/1. Be wary of getting with d=David Warner. He has been suffering from finger problems and batted with a splint in Chennai.

Recommended bets
India to win at 2.186/5
Back Michael Clarke to score 50 at 2.001/1 or better

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