South Africa v Pakistan First T20 Betting: Let the toss be your guide

Faf du Plessis leads the Proteas

Ed Hawkins previews the first of two Twenty20 matches. Can South Africa's new-look squad take out an unpredictable Pakistan in Durban on Friday night?

South Africa v Pakistan
Start time: 16.00GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa
All change for the Proteas. Faf du Plessis is the new captain after AB De Villiers quit the role. De Villiers will play and as wicketkeeper, too. Hashim Amla will not as he has been asked to be rested for a year. He is the first of many big name absentees. There is no Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel or Jacques Kallis. Lonwabo Tsotsobe is the main strike bowler in the absence of the former two and Ryan McLaren the key all-rounder. Henry Davids, Aaron Phangiso, Chris Morris and Quinton de Kock, who made their T20 debuts against New Zealand, were retained.

Pakistan
Mohammad Hafeez leads a bunch which includes some old faces. The Akmal brothers are back, so too is Shahid Afridi and Wahab Riaz. Nasir Jamshed, the opener, is charged with scoring the runs but he had a poor Test leg of the tour. Saeed Ajmal and Umar Gul provide class with the ball. But otherwise this squad looks to have the same problem as the Test team - no batsmen. Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq are not involved.

First-innings runs
There have been nine completed T20 internationals at Kingsmead. The average first-innings score is 150. The lowest total has been 73 and the highest 218. Five of the nine matches have been won by the side batting first but we are concerned about the impact of the lights for the team batting second, particularly if it is Pakistan. They cannot cope with the swinging ball at the best of times so they could be severely tested.

Match odds
There is not much to like about either side to be frank. South Africa have been shorn of their star players, and by that we mean reliable folk who we know can cut it. Sure, some of the youngsters in the squad have the talent but it remains to be seen whether they have the temperament. Perhaps Pakistan have the edge, then. The Akmal brothers and Afridi are, at the least, game changers with the bat. They are also prone to be hopeless, however. As ever, the prices help. South Africa are as short as 1.674/6. That may turn out to be a value bet but it is too skinny for us considering we have worries about the toss. They are vulnerable, too against Messrs Gul and Riaz, who can bend it. A trade is possible on Pakistan but we are wary. Wait for the toss.

Top South Africa batsman
Of their top four runscorers in the last 12 months, South Africa are without three of them. Du Plessis is No 1 with 192 but JP Duminy, Kallis and Amla are absent. The coming man, however, is 4.507/2 shot Henry Davids. At 33, he is no spring chiken yet in three outings he has 143 runs at 47. He will open with Richard Levi. Du Plessis, who top scored last time at Durban in December against New Zealand, is at No 3 at will go off at 4.2016/5.

Top Pakistan batsman
There have been some pretty average performances in the last 12 months from this collection of batsmen. Of Hafeez, Jamshed, the Akmal brothers, Shoaib Malik and Shahid Afridi not one of them averages more than 29. Hafeez is the top runscorer over that time with 375 runs in 13 matches followed by Jamshed with 263. Jamshed is a favourite usually but we cannot abide him following his Test performances. It may be best to look down the order for experience in Shoaib.

Recommended bet
Back the side batting first