The Punter's De-Brief: Kuchar the Match Play King

Matt Kuchar – winner of the WGCA Accenture

After a long and demanding five days of match play, Matt Kuchar emerged triumphant. It was a good result for our man but he's not resting on his laurels as he asks, what have we learnt for next year?

Despite a bit of a late wobble, Matt Kuchar beat Hunter Mahan in last night's WGC Accenture 2 & 1 to win his first World Golf Championship event. It marked another step-up in the American's career, after last year's victory at the Players Championship, and the question is now, can he win a major? He's a 40.039/1 shot for the fast-approaching US Masters and given he's already shown a liking for Augusta, that looks a fair price.

My Bets
After backing Kuchar at 27.026/1 after day one it was extremely pleasing to get a nice meaty win for a change - my first really good one this year!

As detailed in the In-Play Blog, I layed a bit back during the final but it was still a good result.

I changed tactics this year and cut down on my pre-event picks considerably, backing just four outsiders from the off and although all bar one of the players I had my eye-on before kick-off made it through the first round, I still fancy it's the way forward.

I had in mind which players I wanted to back and was able to take perfectly respectable prices in-running.

What have we learnt for next year?
I'm going to stick to the same tactics, betting-wise. It's oh so easy to be seduced by the big early prices but you could easily back eight before the off (two from each bracket) and wake-up on Thursday to see you've just one or two left. Round one is where the shocks occur in abundance, so ignore the understandable hype and excitement before the off and get stuck in after day one.

It's NOT the lottery some make it out to be. Avoid the outsiders and the favourites and concentrate on match play specialists.

Although it's tempting when you see top-drawer players at huge prices, the fact is, so far, they haven't won at this venue, and nor have the favourites. The last five winners have all been confirmed match play specialists with great event form.

Concentrate on Ryder Cuppers in particular - six of the last eight this year were all experienced Ryder Cuppers. The odd men out were Robert Garrigus and Jason Day and the latter, being Australian, isn't eligible for the Ryder Cup anyway but he has played in the Presidents Cup.

Playing catch-up is very hard. A fast start is essential in any match play tie but it seems particularly so here. Of the 64 matches played at Dove Mountain this week, only seven players led after nine holes and failed to win. Five of those were just 1 up through nine, Thomas Bjorn lost a 2 up lead to Peter Hanson, and Rafael Cabrera Bello came from 3 down to beat Lee Westwood.

Oppose those that have had a tough semi-final. Last year, Rory McIlroy wasn't at his best in the final against Hunter Mahan, after a gruelling grudge match against Lee Westwood and this year, you have to wonder how much Mahan had left after beating Ian Poulter.

I know he beat the 2010 winner with ease yesterday, but how pumped-up was he for that encounter and how much adrenalin was used up? He would have gone to bed on Saturday night, knowing he was about to face Mr Match Play, the man that almost single-handedly won the Ryder Cup for Europe. Lifting himself again for the final wasn't going to be easy and he certainly wasn't at his best.

And finally, follow our very own Paul Krishnamurty's match betting advice. After correctly forecasting the final yesterday morning, he took his tally of match winning wagers to eight from eight over the course of the event and that's some performance! Well done Paul and well done anyone that followed his advice.

We're back to stroke play this week with two events. On the Race to Dubai, the tour returns to South Africa again for a brand new tournament, Tshwane Open and on the PGA Tour, there's a very strong field lining-up in Florida for the Honda Classic. I'll be back tomorrow with previews of both events.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter