Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Lukaku absence offers Rafa stay of execution

Rafa's tenuous relationship with the Chelsea fans has now gone way beyond breaking point.

Jaymes Monte looks through the Opta stats for Saturday's Premier League 3pm kick-offs and picks out his best bets...

Chelsea 1.434/9 v West Brom 9.28/1; The Draw 5.04/1
West Brom haven't been the most welcome of opponents for Chelsea managers of late. The Blues have lost their last two Premier League clashes with the Baggies and they were the final matches in charge for both Andre Villas-Boas and Roberto Di Matteo respectively. Given his outburst in midweek, defeat here could well be the final act of Rafa Benitez as Chelsea manager.

Both those defeats, however, came at the Hawthorns. At Stamford Bridge the European champions have been much more dominant. Chelsea have won the last eight encounters at the Bridge and have scored 17 goals in the last six league fixtures here.

Romelu Lukaku is ineligible to play against his parent club and will be sorely missed for Steve Clarke's side. His absence should ensure Benitez does not go the way of his predecessors and they look good value to win without conceding given the Belgian's absence.
Best Bet: Back Chelsea to win to nil @ 2.56/4

Everton 1.412/5 v Reading 10.09/1; The Draw 5.14/1
Surprisingly, Everton have won only two of their five Premier League encounters with Reading, including a 2-1 loss at the Madejski earlier this season. But I wouldn't want to be opposing David Moyes' men here.

Instead we should look to the goals markets where Under 2.5 can be backed at a standout 2.466/4. Four of the five Premier League meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals, while they've only managed to score two goals between them in their last four games combined.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.3611/8

Man Utd 1.341/3 v Norwich 11.010/1; The Draw 6.05/1
I'm almost certain that Sir Alex Ferguson will opt to rest a number of key players this weekend. Their stranglehold on the Premier League top spot and Tuesday's massive game with Real Madrid ensures that.

That doesn't, however, give us reason to oppose United. Although Norwich took the reverse fixture at Carrow Road, the Canaries have won only once on their travels in the Premier League this season and haven't won at Old Trafford in the league since 1989.

What United's weakened team does mean is that they are much less of an attacking threat, and we can therefore get some value in the goals markets. Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 2.56/4.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.56/4

Southampton 1.9110/11 v QPR 4.67/2; The Draw 3.7511/4
Queens Park Rangers head into this weekend's game with just two wins on the board. Only one of the three previous teams to win two or fewer of their opening 27 games in the top-flight have avoided relegation (West Brom in 2004-05) and only two of the last 11 sides to win three or fewer have ultimately survived.

However, the Rs do have a decent record against Southampton, with the Saints only managing five wins in the last 17 league encounters between the teams.

QPR have scored only four goals in their last 10 Premier League games, and that is obviously something that must improve if they are to have any chance of surviving. It's time for Harry Redknapp to throw caution to the wind and go for the jugular in these games.
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.9520/21

Stoke 2.186/5 v West Ham 4.03/1; The Draw 3.3512/5
Jussi Jskelinen's heroics against Tottenham last Monday, although ultimately in vain, mean that he has now made more saves in the Premier League than any other goalkeeper this season (109). And considering Premier League games between Stoke and West Ham have averaged only 2.1 goals per game, this looks like another low-scorer.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5

Sunderland 2.427/5 v Fulham 3.3512/5; The Draw 3.412/5
Sunderland have won only one of their last seven Premier League games against Fulham but that victory did come earlier this season in a slightly flattering 3-1 win at Craven Cottage.

The Black Cats have failed to score in six of their last nine Premier League games against Fulham, and have netted just twice in their last four matches against all opposition coming into this one.

This is unlikely to be one for the neutrals and looks to be the low-scoring banker of the weekend.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.784/5

Swansea 2.226/5 v Newcastle 3.55/2; The Draw 3.65n/a
The big question here is will Swansea suffer a League Cup hangover? The last two teams to win the League Cup (Liverpool and Birmingham) lost their first league games after lifting the trophy, and Michael Laudrup's side could well extend that stat against an improving and attacking Newcastle side.

Alan Pardew's men have conceded exactly two goals in each of their last three games but have won two of those matches, while they have taken nine points from their last four matches after taking only seven from the previous 13.
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.8810/11