Against All Odds: Overs in Monaco with Lens in town

Claudio Ranieri has masterminded Monaco's revival

Monaco host Lens in France's Ligue Two this evening and while the market is predicting few goals, Paul Robinson thinks we should get at least three.

The comeback started yesterday as our lay of AZ at 1.538/15 was well and truly vindicated as they lost to Breda 1-0. It more than made up for the late reversal in Holland the day before and I'm hoping to kick on now and  bang out a few winners this week.

Monaco are enjoying a fabulous campaign under Claudio Ranieri and they lead the division by two points with a game in hand over their nearest challengers. They beat Dijon 2-0 away from home last time out and in truth it could have been a lot more as they looked exceptionally dangerous on the break.

Their counter-attacking ability could perhaps be the reason why they've picked up more points on the road this term than they have at home, despite playing one less game. Their form at Stade Louis II is still good though; unbeaten in six with three wins and three draws, but we have to go back to the start of that run to find their last clean sheet on home soil.

The Red and Whites' matches have been averaging 2.68 goals per 90 minutes this season, with 13 of the 25 going over 2.5 - seven of which were at home. Three of their last five in Monaco have gone over, with the 3-1 victory over Sedan and 2-2 draw with Guingamp going over 3.5.

Lens are 10th with 36 points but they could move up to eighth if they pull off what would be something of a shock victory this evening. They've actually only lost five times this season - just two more than leaders Monaco - but with 12 drawn, they have dropped points on too many occasions. 

As far as the goals go; Eric Sikora's side have seen 12 of their 25 fixtures have three or more this year, with the overall average sitting at 2.52 goals per game. Recent form is all important in football though and their last five scorelines have been: 2-2, 2-1, 2-0, 3-2, 4-3, with their last four away from home reading: 2-2, 2-2, 2-1, 3-2.

It's easy to see Lens scoring here but it's difficult to not see Monaco winning. Therefore with under 2.5 goals trading around the 1.9520/21 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Monaco v Lens @ 1.9520/21

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 55 pts
Returned: 49.11 pts
P/L – 5.89 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)