In-Running Week: Cheltenham Special!

Neil Munro looks ahead to Cheltenham

With less than two weeks to go until the racing feast that is The Cheltenham Festival I thought I would put forward some in-running nibbles to try on the day, starting this week with the main feature races on each of the first two days...

Tuesday

Arkle - The starting point for trading in this race has to be around Overturn and Simonsig, and whether Donald McCain's stable sweetheart (he obviously adores this horse) can get into his familiar rhythm at the front end. I am sure he will be up there, but whether he will have an easy time of it is very debateable with Nicky Henderson already suggesting that Simonsig could challenge the early pace (and he is comfortable with any tactics) as well as Avrika Ligeonniere and a couple of bigger price runners challenging. With this in mind I am going to try and lay Overturn in the run to try and obtain a bit of value, as well as the fact that I do not think he will win. If Oscars Well runs in this I will attempt to trade on him with the way he travels and the fact a strong pace should help him travel well into the race late.

Lay Overturn in the run at around 3.10 in the run, with a further offer up at 2.10.
Back Oscars Well pre-race at BSP for small and then lay out your stake at the BSP with further offers around 4.00 and 2.50 to have the field winning.

Champion Hurdle - For me this race revolves around some strong travelling types and the gritty determination of Zarkandar. Hurricane Fly, Rock On Ruby, Binocular (or My Tent Or Yours if plans changed) all move with eye-catching ease and of the three the stats back up playing on Rock On Ruby, although I will also have a small play on Binocular because of the likely value. Meanwhile Zarkandar is a horse who just grinds it out and keeps finding and because of this tends to trade bigger in the run in victory and defeat. The play on Zarkandar is based on not fancying the horse, but if you do, just split your stakes, backing pre-race at BSP, and the other in the run at double BSP.

Lay Zarkandar pre-race and then put up a back offer in the run at 2.5 times the BSP to cover your liability.
Back Rock On Ruby pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at the BSP with a further offer to create a green book at just above evens.
Back Binocular pre-race at BSP for small and then lay out your stake at the BSP with further offers around 2.50 and 1.50 to create a green book.
 
RSA Chase - Let us keep this simple. I don't fancy Dynaste so I am looking for some value to trade on and in Super Duty I have a likely front runner who will trade short in the run and Boston Bob who will be delivered late and will trade both high and low during the race.

Back Super Duty pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake only at the matched price with further offers up around evens to create a green book but with Super Duty still winning plenty.
Back Boston Bob for small stakes pre-race at BSP, and then back it at both 2x and 4x BSP in the run for further small stakes. Then lay out your combined stakes, plus a little more at around 2.20 to create a green book.

Champion Chase - Probably the hardest of the four races to try and make a trade in. I think Sprinter Sacre is rock solid, being a horse that travels supremely well and jumps like a stag. Sometimes it is just best to say no.

No play. 

Remember with Cheltenham Festival trades to put them in slightly higher or lower than at other meetings due to the volume of money and the fact that you are trading on a market that is very educated and mature.

Something for the weekend

The Package - He is entered at the weekend in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster and it will be perceived as an attempt to bounce back from a poor run at Warwick earlier in the year but that was on heavy ground which he has never particularly likes. With the ground drying out it could be time to trade on a horse that travels well and normally gets in the shake-up. The Package has traded his BSP in 18 of 24 of his runs and odds-on in 10 of those runs so has the stats and style for a back to lay trade. If he goes to Cheltenham then play on him there as well.

Home Run - If David Pipe sends Home Run to Newbury this weekend for the Greatwood Hurdle then I will be looking to get involved with a horse that tends to drift under pressure at the business end. He put together the five timer earlier in the season so it doesn't always stop him winning but with the weight he is carrying now I am happy that my end position is opposing the horse. I will be backing Home Run for small stakes and then look to lay out my stake at the BSP in the run with further low offers to have the field winning.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.